Gerrymandering Using Census Clustering And GIS 111
dpplgngr writes "According to this BBC article, Map redrawing angers U.S. Democrats, Republicans in Texas are making use of Census data and mapping software to redraw districts, signficantly altering the election process, and resulting in the lowest overturn of incumbents in history."
This isn't much different. (Score:2)
Re:This isn't much different. (Score:2)
It amazes me that after nearly 230 years it's still news to people that our government, in all its permutations, is a horrible kludge. Not as much of a horrible kludge as a lot of other governmental systems, but a horrible kludge nonetheless.
Tomorrow's headline: Study shows nation's wine supply may contain fermented grapes!
Wouldn't term limits help? (Score:2)
Would there ever be any hope of such a thing getting passed?
(I would think some of the smaller states would be in favor, since the most powerful career congressmen are from the bigger states, though there are exceptions)
Re:Wouldn't term limits help? (Score:2)
Stupid move on our part...
Re:Wouldn't term limits help? (Score:2)
Re:This isn't much different. (Score:1)
In many areas, city government is elected in an at large system, and people complain. Then it is changed to districting, to lump similar demographic groups together, and people complain.
As we have a b
ancient (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:ancient (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:ancient (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:ancient (Score:3, Insightful)
No, if you read their comments more closely, you'll see that they're not exactly saying "two wrongs make a right". They're saying an actual wrong and a hypothetical wrong make a right. "If your side was in power they'd be doing this too so it's OK."
Re:ancient (Score:2)
No, if you read their comments more closely, you'll see that they're not exactly saying "two wrongs make a right". They're saying an actual wrong and a hypothetical wrong make a right. "If your side was in power they'd be doing this too so it's OK."
Do you see that as being any better?
Re:ancient (Score:1)
(I'm not trying to be a smartass- I don't understand your question.)
Re:ancient (Score:2)
On the other hand:
"Two Wrights can invent the aeroplane." --Spock the Baptist
Re:ancient (Score:2)
True true. The new hotness is illegally disenfranchising voters.
Matter of degree (Score:5, Interesting)
But this is a NEW big deal. Not because gerrymandering is new, but because its become so very powerful and accurate. It used to be that the House was the agent of change and the Senate was supposed to be the cautionary brake. Now the House has become gerrymandered so badly its considered even more stable for incumbents than the Senate. The House of Representatives has basically lost all purpose--in the space of a few decades of computer modelling, the House has become almost invulnerable to popular will. Much like the Senate pre-17th amendment, representatives are de facto appointed by the state legislatures. Except that those same legislatures are gerrymandering themselves as well. Without correction, we will have a self appointed Politburo running state governments and the House.
Re:Matter of degree (Score:2)
Correction, it favors the incumbents of whatever party did the gerrymandering. Several Texas incumbent Democrats are getting the boot thanks to Mr. unethical Delay.
Re:Matter of degree (Score:2)
This map shows the community by congressional districts.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/cngplan/PDF_CD_ATLA S
This map shows the community by state senate districts.
http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/senplan/PDF_SD_ATLAS
Now, This map shows the land u
Re:ancient (Score:3, Insightful)
Not that it would matter if they endorsed such a system, since the Republicans are firmly in control here. It's more than just a little bit worrisome.
"We're going to keep on building the party [the Texas GOP] until we're hunting Democrats with dogs." -- attributed to Phil Gramm.
Re:ancient (Score:2)
There is no such program that can generate a fair map.
Why? Because generating a fair map requires knowing everyone's vote in advance so that they can be allocated to the appropriate districts.
Even if you could get everyone's vote in advance, it may not even be possible to draw a map that groups the appropriate voters into contiguous districts. What do you do with isolated De
Re:ancient (Score:2, Insightful)
Actually there was, but it may be an anachronism because people have become mobile and isolated compared to the days without motorized traffic and a 'dynamic' labor market. There used to be geographical / social / cultural / geological boundaries which could be said to define communities. For example, people along part of a river could be said to be part of the same community. Or a cluster of neighborhood with the same ethnicity. Or groups on either side
Re:ancient (Score:2)
The only real solution to gerrymandering is to stop using districts in elections where they have no meaning. Does the US House of Representitives really need a representive specifically from my di
Re:ancient (Score:2)
Gerrymandering limited by increase in House reps (Score:5, Interesting)
If the 2000 census is correct, we have around 294 million people in the United States. This makes for a ratio of one representative : 675,862 constituents. In 1910, the ratio was about 1 : 200,000.
I don't foresee the population of the United States coming down any time soon, which is all the reason you need to see that this issue is only becoming more important, not less -- having a veritable Senator for your district who cannot be voted out and is distant from your needs breeds apathy and alienation.
While many people I've talked to think that the number of representatives is fixed by the Constitution, it isn't -- it was fixed by Congress, and Congress can unfix it as well.
Observe what Article I, Section 2, Clause 3 of the United States Constitution has to say on the subject:
"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; and until such enumeration shall be made, the State of New Hampshire shall be entitled to chuse three, Massachusetts eight, Rhode-Island and Providence Plantations one, Connecticut five, New-York six, New Jersey four, Pennsylvania eight, Delaware one, Maryland six, Virginia ten, North Carolina five, South Carolina five, and Georgia three."
So apparently, they thought 30,000 : 1 was a bit of a low ratio to be sensible. By that count, we'd have 9,800 representatives. But having only 1,200 reps would mean having a ratio of 1 : 245,000; more than halfing the current 1 : almost 700,000 ratio.
There are obviously logistical problems, like voting, space, offices, and so on. Also, it would significantly limit the amount of power reps currently have, which I can see as a good thing and a bad thing. But in a day where it seems nobody doesn't have a lawyer, why would it be so crazy to think that everyone should know their representative?
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:3, Insightful)
If the number of reps increased, we'd have to rename "pork" to "beef" or "elephant." It's a problem when you have too many cooks, because it spoils the pot. An increase in the numbers would decrease the bill-making efficiency.
Then again, maybe slowing down congress is just what this country needs. We already have too many federal laws.
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:3, Interesting)
However, it's not like we have 435 people working together anyway; most work is done in committee, where I don't think increasing the size by 2
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:1)
What, require candidates to weigh a minimum of like, 350 lbs?
On a more serious note, why haven't there been any discussions focusing on the past two debates? Meanwhile, there has been a lot of discussion regarding independent candidates whose chances of being elected are statistically indistinguishable from zero.
In my opinion, the reality of the
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:2)
This is to avoid sounding biased. Since the republicans got SLAMMED in the debates, any mention thereof would have to make note of this fact.
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:2)
The second debate was all pre-approved questions, despite the fact that they were from the audience. Could it be that both camps simply refused to approve questions that they knew their opponent would sound the same on?
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:3, Interesting)
There are arguments for a cube root formula [prb.org] here
Re:Gerrymandering limited by increase in House rep (Score:2)
I don't remember the exact numbers, but I remember someone working out what would have happened if Congress hadn't locked in the number of representatives, and as it turns out Gore would have won the 2000 election even w/o Florida.
New map shows.. (Score:4, Funny)
Okay, off to RTFA now, eh?
Re:New map shows.. (Score:1)
Ahh... my generation, the future of America. Scary huh?
Actually, there's another reason incumbents win (Score:2, Informative)
It takes money to win unfortunately, and if you restrict the ability to raise money, you impede the ability for a challenge to run a competitive campaign.
If you are concerned about low turnover in the US house, gerrymandering or increasing the number of representa
Re:Actually, there's another reason incumbents win (Score:2)
Re:Actually, there's another reason incumbents win (Score:1)
That was my point!
Gerrymandering isn't the only way--but it's quickly becoming the most powerful.
All Gerrymandering does is group people together who vote the same way. This gives them more voting power. Just because they vote for the same person over and over doesn't mean that their voice is not heard. If another candidate wants to win, they've got to prove that they will represent the district better then the incumbent.
Imagin
Re:Actually, there's another reason incumbents win (Score:2)
Yes, this will be great. Let's cut to the chase and just let each corporation with over $10,000,000 in assets pick a rep and send him to Washington. Why bother the people with the laborous task of having to go to the polls and vote every year?
Oooh those evil Republicans (Score:2, Insightful)
Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:3, Informative)
"There is little sympathy for him (Frost) either.
"Prior to last year's map redistricting, the most significant gerrymander in Texas was carried out by the Democrats in 1991.
"They carved up the state to favour their side, and the figure at the helm that year was a certain... Martin Frost.
Of course you didn't read the article. No, facts might be inconvienent for your world-view.
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:2)
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:1)
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:2)
You know, MAYBE, just MAYBE I was commenting on the idiotic editor who posted the story, and not the story itself.
/. article? All it does is state a simple fact that the Republicans are currently pissing off Democrats by using a very accurate method of gerrymandering. Simple and to-the-point. It puts the focus on the method more than the action itself. And then the article is pretty balanced as well. I think you're just being a jackass.
Umm, what, exactly, is wrong with the
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:1)
You posted the initial flame buddy. I just called you on it.
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:1)
Re:Oohh those idiots who don't read the article! (Score:1)
Actually, I understand your post completely. There was absolutely nothing wrong with either the /. article or the linked article. Yet you decided to take a shot at the /. article as being biased somehow. Seemed like a pretty jackass-ish thing to do.
One-Sided Reporting (Score:3, Informative)
For those of you who don't remember, or don't care, Texas was a Democrat state a rather short period of time ago (about 20 years). Most of the uproar is from the Republicans trying to reverse the grossly partisan gerrymandering that took place just a little while ago to keep the Republicans from coming to power.
The Texas Constitution requires new boundaries to be drawn every 10 years. In 1991, the last redistricting, both the Senate and the House were strongly controlled by Democrats ( 77% in the Senate and 62 % in the House). http://www.fairvote.org/redistricting/reports/rem
That explains very well with maps what exactly happened in 1991, and even further back.
Take my area for example. US District 21 extends from San Antonio all the way to El Paso, making it one of the largest districts in Texas. This was created to make a very strong Republican District so that the rest of the districts in the area could feed off of the Democrats.
Even though the Bexar County Area is about 65% Republican, our representation in the state legislature is 70% Democrat. And one of those 3 Republicans is a moderate.
Another interesting fact is that while it is illegal to redistrict based on race, it is perfectly legal to do it based on Political Parties.
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:2, Informative)
The maps and analysis at fairvote.org are nice, though.
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:5, Informative)
As a Texan, I have to say that is a totally false and highly partisan mischaracterization of the situation prior to the Republican's abusive redistricting. What actually happened was that both parties had fought in our legislature and could not come up with a solution for the redistricting. So the map was drawn by a nonpartisan panel of federal judges [wsws.org], based on the 2000 Census figures. A year later, the Republicans got enough control to push their new redistricting along, and a new Republican map was pushed through which was not based on any new Census information, but was purley designed to try to get a political advantage.
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:1)
Wow, I don't know what to say.
Don't you think the editorialising on that page probably has just a little bit of an agenda?
Here is a hint:
Anything discussing the recent Texas gerrymandering that has absolutely no reference to 1991 is biased. For the reasons I pointed out
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:2)
The 2000 Census brought the need for redistricting. There was a lot of conflict over the redistricting, so a non-partisan panel of federal judges made the final mapbased solely on Census data without poitical consideration.
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:1)
It figures that you live in Travis County, the most Democratic County in Texas. Martin Frost did a MAJOR gerrymandering job in 1991, with the help of the DNC.
I live in Northwest Tyler. Prior to the 1992 election I was in Texas US Congressional District 4, and was represented by
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:2, Interesting)
That is not totally true, and quite misleading. First of all, two of the Judges on the 3 judge panel were Democrat appointments [fairvote.org].
Second, the judge's drew up their own House map, but accepted the Senate map.
Third, They approved the new map [fairvote.org] that the BBC is reporting on.
Fourth, even though Texas voted more then 60% Republican [state.tx.us] in 2000, 17 out of our 32 seats went to Democrats.( Before U.S. Rep. Ralph H [fairvote.org]
so what (Score:1)
So what? Was their map unfair? Arguably no. As you said they took the Senate map, which also would have been drawn up by the GOP, so they weren't just being partisan.
Fourth, even though Texas voted more then 60% Republican in 2000, 17 out of our 32 seats went to Democrats.
Actually it was 56%. And why should a party that got 56% of the vote get over 70% of the seats?
If anyone doubted
Dems got 70% of Reps,but less than 50% of the vote (Score:2)
Nonpartisan? Right......judges never let politics sway them.
Just looking at the results of the election in 2002 shows something is fishy.
These judges were so non-partisan that they drew maps giving the Democrats over 70% of the representatives even though they received less t
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:1)
If the Democrats did things like this 12 years ago before Bush took over, we'd still have the state. Obviously, we either didn't do it or
Re:One-Sided Reporting (Score:2)
Funny, you never cared when rural Republican areas were carved up and divided among the liberal centers around the state.
If the Democrats di
And one of those 3 Republican (Score:2)
Re:And one of those 3 Republican (Score:1)
So you don't think there is something seriously wrong when a majority opinion is represented by a minority of congressmen?
The comment about one of the 3 Republicans was to show that even the 30% Republican minority was really more like 25%, an even grosser injustice.
Re:And one of those 3 Republican (Score:3, Interesting)
The flaw in your theory (Score:2)
Also, I may be wrong on this part but I think they used their current majority to force through a redistricting order outside of the normal schedule in an attempt to make their majority permanent.
As far as being one-sided, as a earlier poster said, the history of D
1992-2002 Texas Voting/Representation Statistics (Score:2)
1992:
48% voted R and won 30%(9) of the US House seats
50% voted D and won 70%(21) of the US House seats
1994:
56% voted R and won 37%(11) of the US House seats
42% voted D and won 63%(19) of the US House seats
1996:
54% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
44% voted D and won 57%(17) of the US House seats
1998:
52% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
44% voted D and won 57%(17) of the US House seats
2000:
48.0% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
46.
Re:1992-2002 Texas Voting/Representation Statistic (Score:2)
1992:
48% voted R and won 30%(9) of the US House seats
50% voted D and won 70%(21) of the US House seats
1994:
56% voted R and won 37%(11) of the US House seats
42% voted D and won 63%(19) of the US House seats
1996:
54% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
44% voted D and won 57%(17) of the US House seats
1998:
52% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
44% voted D and won 57%(17) of the US House seats
2000:
48.0% voted R and won 43%(13) of the US House seats
46
There is only one way to fix it (Score:5, Interesting)
Count this as a published patent.
Re:There is only one way to fix it (Score:1)
Size doesn't matter in this idea. (Score:2)
For us non-US citizens... (Score:5, Interesting)
From what I've just read, it appears that this is simply a way of increasing the vote for a particular party within the newly-drawn district, and thus lands more seats.
Re:For us non-US citizens... (Score:1)
Re:For us non-US citizens... (Score:2)
It is, but it is legal cheating. Further, the only people who could make it illegal[1] benefit from the process, or are looking forward to doing so in the near future. The only good part is that it must be re-done every 10 years, so the bad effects don't really last.
I care most about fair redistricting when it isn't in my favor. No matter what the case is though there are more important issues to me. I'm more concerned about copyright, patent, and gun laws. (to name a few, there are others)
[1] well
Re:For us non-US citizens... (Score:2)
The United States is divided into 50 states.
The legislature of the United States has two chambers.
The upper chamber, the Senate, has 2 senators from each state. Senators serve for 6 years and their terms are staggered, so except for death or resignation or something, each election at most one Senator is elected from a state. Everybody in the state votes, and whoever gets the most votes in the whole state wins the Senate seat.
The lower chamber, the House of Representatives, has
Re:For us non-US citizens... (Score:1)
Wow, talk about your voter apathy.
Re:For us non-US citizens... (Score:1)
Fury at dinner invite for Porter [bbc.co.uk]
"Salamander" shaped (Score:2)
Ok, so I was imagining a lizard viewed from above, crawling on its back, like in this article [salon.com]. But I was curious what it actually looked like. Turns out, the name was actually due in large part to a political cartoon [msn.com]. Pretty stuff, but wouldn't look like a salamander to me without the generous addition of artwork.
Proportional Representation (Score:1)
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:2)
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:1)
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:2)
Maybe Australia? Japan? North Korea?
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:2)
Lots of EU countries have PR in various forms. A few examples:
The Netherlands has PR with the whole country being one electorate (it's a small place).
Germany has single member electorates and then top-up members from national lists to make the proportions work out. This has the slightly odd result that you don't know in advance exactly how big the Bundestag will be.
Sweden has districts with about 7 members elected by PR and then has top-up members.
Australia (which is obviously not EU) has PR by stat
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:2)
Presidential elections (Score:1)
Presidential elections (reformatted post) (Score:1)
1. Each county gets one "electoral vote", but no persons are elected as electors. Each county votes for President via IRV (Instant Runoff Voting), and the majority winner is granted one electoral vote. This prevents rural counties from being ignored, and makes things real interesting. The plurality winner at the national level wi
Re:Presidential elections (reformatted post) (Score:2)
I really don't understand what's wrong with just going with popular vote. Why should those who live in less populous areas get more of a say than those who live in populous areas? And why should those who live in an area trhat isn't close
Re:Presidential elections (Score:1)
As for how many electors each county gets, I guess one way is to calculate it like this. For every 500,000 potential voters in a given county, the county would be granted one electoral vote, with an actual person elected to cast the vote. It would round up to the nearest 50
Re:Presidential elections (Score:2)
Any flaws with simply changing it from a state level to a voter level? Why should some peoples votes count more than others?
That's the flaw I see with the state level: I don't like disproportionate representation. Moving to counties just makes it worse. Even your 500,000 system just over-represents counties with less than 500,000 voters.
The other flaw with any electoral college system is the winner-take-all. Why should some voters opinions be meaningless, just because significantly more than half of
Re:Presidential elections (Score:1)
The Condorcet is flawed. It ignores voter choice. But then again, someone could simply only mark in the candidate they want to win, and leave some pairings blank.
Re:Presidential elections (Score:2)
Why shouldn't candidates try to appeal to more people rather than certain people? Why is it important to favor the relevance of rural dwellers over urban dwellers? Call me crazy, but I think candidates should concentrate more on places with more people. They should be trying to appeal to the most people, not th
Re:Proportional Representation (Score:2)
Each party gets a preportional number of seats to the percentage of the electorate that voted for them
The people who fill the seats are selected by in-party elections prior to national elections. The prime minister must then build a coalition of 50% of the parliment in order to get the budget passed (I believe that if it is not passed by a certain date,
Caliper's Mapitude (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't know why I couch this is "this party" and "other party" language -- it's the Republicans, because they had dominance in many states after the 2000 census, just as technology had advanced sufficiently to turn redistricting into more of a science. If we Democrats had the majority then, we probably would have dome the same thing (though I'd like to hope I'd have argued against it in favor of redistricting by disinterested parties, not that what I say matters to anybody in any way).
-Waldo Jaquith
Re:Caliper's Mapitude (Score:2)
Democrats did do the same thing. Even without technology, Democrats ended up with over 56% of the representatives [cnn.com] despite getting only about 40% of the vote in 2000.
Even after a redrawing of the map by "non-partisan" judges, the Democrats still got 53% of the representati
Texas... (Score:1, Funny)
Repubs and Dems, everyone is involved in this one. (Score:1)
I believe it's Utah Mr. Morris highlights in his book as the model of redistricting. They have an independent body that is agreed to only in number of participants by the parties, and they use strict interperatati
Constitutionality (Score:2, Interesting)
Set up Boundary Commissions (Score:5, Interesting)
Now, the distinct community bit is obviously open to intepretation, but it does mean that some of the strange districts some US states have come up with straggling long thin arms halfway across the state wouldn't be allowed.
Admittedly, sometimes balancing the requirements of population vs community can come up with oddities: at present the Western Isles of Scotland are rather over represented with one MP for around 30K electorate, whereas the Isle of Wight is under-represented with one MP for around 100K as it's not quite big enough to qualify for two constituencies. In both cases the Commission felt that the places were too distinct a community, being islands, to be combined with seats on the mainland.
I know US posters will respond that there's no way in thousand years that the politicians would willingly give up this power, but surely in those states that allow popular initiative it ought to be feasible to set up a pressure group to campaign for it?
Can't mess with the founding fathers! (Score:3, Interesting)
I was going to post something about proportional representation, and why it would stop gerrymandering... but, heck, I know the answers I'll be getting:
The founding fathers designed the system, they knew what they were doing yadda yadda. sure... it 's not perfect, but it's served us pretty well... yadda yadda We're the most stable democracy in the world yadda yadda.
Full Representation (Score:2)
Junior,
The term most used nowadays is "Full Representation" and they are as varied as the colors of the rainbow.
You can have party based systems like they have in Europe (ick!). Or you can have multi-member districts with limited voting, cumulative voting or choice voting. Personally, I like limited voting.
It goes like this, let's say you have a district with 5 members. Everyone gets one (or some number less than 5) votes. The top 5 vote getters win with the highest
Re:Full Representation (Score:2)
I know what it is (I still prefer "proportional", though... I feel it's more descriptive)... I've mentioned it in several posts before. I'm simply commenting on the fact that a majority of americans refuse to accept that democratic theory has moved on since the constitution was written, and that *maybe* it was time america moved with it.
You can have party based systems like they have in Europe (ick!).
I'm not sure anyone who lives in a country with a voter turnout in the low fourties (for congres
Iowan Rules (Score:1, Interesting)
Texas District 24 (Score:2)
The Democratic candidate for Texas House District #24 is a friend of mine, Gary Page [garyrpage.com]. He ran on the Green ticket in 2002, and his performa
It not the first time or state. (Score:1, Interesting)
Funny game, this "politics" thing. (Score:1)
Only because the Republicans beat them to the punch. Don't, even for one minute, think that the Democrats wouldn't have done it if they had the chance.
LK
Re:Funny game, this "politics" thing. (Score:2)
It's designed to keep incumbents in power, but if your representative is a failure, there's a primary to defeat him in. Complaining about this problem makes one heck of a case against representative democracy: the poor, poor pitiful people can't pick decent representatives. They're all just girls who can't say "
Re:'Bout damn time! (Score:2)
The problem is, however, that this is far more than a correction. The new districts aren't coming down 60/40. They're far more favorable to the Republicans than the straight numbers would suggest.
The city of Austin, once two close demo