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Evidence That H-1B Holders Don't Replace US Workers 417

Okian Warrior writes: In response to Donald Trump's allegations that H1B visas drive Americans out of jobs, The Huffington Post points to this study which refutes that claim. From the study: "But the data show that over the last decade, as businesses have requested more H-1Bs, they also expanded jobs for Americans." This seems to fly in the face of reason, consensus opinion, and numerous anecdotal reports. Is this report accurate? Have we been concerned over nothing these past few years? Remember, this is about aggregates, rather than whether some specific job has been replaced.
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Evidence That H-1B Holders Don't Replace US Workers

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  • BULL (Score:4, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:01AM (#50353185)

    I have a bunch of H-1B workers (All Indian) at my place of employment, so yeah, they DO replace American workers.

    • Re:BULL (Score:5, Insightful)

      by rudy_wayne ( 414635 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:41AM (#50353467)

      Well, of course. Every foreign worker hired is a job that doesn't go to an American worker.

      Claiming that hiring foreign workers doesn't take jobs away from American workers is bizzaro logic at its best. Its the same bizzaro logic that said shutting down factories and sending millions of jobs to Mexico and China creates job for American workers.

      More importantly, the claim that these are "highly skilled workers" is a lie that insults our intelligence.

      Why is it that all of these "highly skilled workers" come from the same place - a country where a huge percentage of the population is illiterate and lives in poverty far beyond anything that exists in the U.S. A country where 350 million people, more than the entire population of the U.S., shit in public because they don't have access to a toilet. How is it possible that such a country is producing such huge numbers of "highly skilled workers"?

      That's right, it isn't possible. The only "skill" they possess is a willingness to work for low wages. And since the H1-B program is nothing more than legalized indentured servitude, companies can do anything they want without feat of being reported by the workers.

      • by dave420 ( 699308 )

        It is possible, once you stop assuming the country is entirely the same from coast to coast, from sea to mountains, from state to state. Yes, India has a lot of catching up to do, but it already has very good schools, and frequently a great cultural pressure for people to study well and get a good job. Many H1B workers come from India because it's the best place to take them from - a poor country with good IT education facilities, which is already geared up (thanks to the massive companies which deal with

      • by Maxwell ( 13985 )

        Well, of course. Every foreign worker hired is a job that doesn't go to an American worker.

        Claiming that hiring foreign workers doesn't take jobs away from American workers is bizzaro logic at its best. Its the same bizzaro logic that said shutting down factories and sending millions of jobs to Mexico and China creates job for American workers.

        Agreed

        More importantly, the claim that these are "highly skilled workers" is a lie that insults our intelligence.

        Why is it that all of these "highly skilled workers" come from the same place - a country where a huge percentage of the population is illiterate and lives in poverty far beyond anything that exists in the U.S. A country where 350 million people, more than the entire population of the U.S., shit in public because they don't have access to a toilet. How is it possible that such a country is producing such huge numbers of "highly skilled workers"?

        Besides the rural population you already mentioned, there are another 350M middle class there, and yet another 350M there that are quite well off, have access to excellent schools thus becoming as "highly skilled" as a westerner.

        That's right, it isn't possible. The only "skill" they possess is a willingness to work for low wages. And since the H1-B program is nothing more than legalized indentured servitude, companies can do anything they want without feat of being reported by the workers.

        It is certainly possible, it's a fact. It's happening. There are over 4000 engineering colleges in India. There are way, way more comp-sci/engineering grads coming out of India than the USA. There are also over 100,000 Indian students (15,000 undergrad, 85 000 post grad) s

        • More bull! (Score:5, Insightful)

          by s.petry ( 762400 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @12:04PM (#50354723)

          Besides the rural population you already mentioned, there are another 350M middle class there, and yet another 350M there that are quite well off, have access to excellent schools thus becoming as "highly skilled" as a westerner.

          Why people want to claim such easy to disprove bullshit is quite befuddling. No country has a good balance between rich, poor, and middle class. The 1/3rd of the population you claim exists and is "quite well off" simply does not! [thehindu.com] India is very similar to the US where the top .01% own most of the country and the top 10% own 90% of the wealth just like the US. There are more people in extreme poverty in India which makes them worse than the US.

          Getting a degree does not make a good and productive worker in a foreign country. If it did, every company would have more Chinese workers than Indian workers because that is who the numbers have favored for decades. There is quite a bit to that discussion, more than I care to get into in this thread. Anyone that has dealt with development and support out of a foreign country knows exactly what I'm talking about.

          Your personal anecdote with hiring does not change the fact that H1B workers are easily pressured into working far more than anyone should. Recent criminal actions against several companies for human rights violations in the SF Bay area should make that abundantly clear, and we only know about the few that were abused to a point where they turned in their sponsors. Of course a H1B worker is "hard working"! That is the point of people calling it a legal indentured servitude. For every one company that uses the system correctly there are at least as many that don't.

      • Well, of course. Every foreign worker hired is a job that doesn't go to an American worker.

        Claiming that hiring foreign workers doesn't take jobs away from American workers is bizzaro logic at its best.

        Zero sum fallacy.

        Seriously. This is about as stupid as the debate can get.

        • Re:BULL (Score:4, Insightful)

          by imgod2u ( 812837 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @12:20PM (#50354887) Homepage

          While true, it doesn't mean foreign workers don't affect US employment at all. Just not on a 1-to-1 basis like simplistic politicians claim.

          Of course, there may be more long-term benefits that far outweigh the short-term drops in domestic employment. As others mentioned, these are hard-working, semi-skilled to very skilled individuals who want to come to this country to work, pay taxes, buy property, etc. Hardly the type of people you wanna be turning away considering your own population is dominated by people of retirement age....

  • by curmudgeon99 ( 1040054 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:08AM (#50353231)
    Always consider the source. This "study" is totally biased and funded by the libertarian--regulation hating Koch Brothers and their CATO institute. This is false and not true.
    • Economics 101 is that when faced with fierce competition in the job market, wages will rise. They haven't been rising for software developers. Ergo, while the job market is certainly better for us than many other professions, the "job shortage" is a fiction.

      What businesses *do* see is we're not as desperate for a job. They're so used to having a hundred people apply for one job mopping floors that they think that's normal, and the way things should be.
    • Actually the Niskanen Center is Libertarian.

      They state as their intent to shrink the size of government. This is them wanting to get rid of INS. They are pretty radical, even as Libertarians go, since most Libertarians are OK with UBI (for example), as a means of paying poor people to not steal their stuff. These guys are far ... not right or left ... up?

      • I have been and always will be a small l libertarian, but I am fed up with Rothbardian capital L Libertarians. Non aggression principle/Non-initiation of force is the axiom their whole ideology is built on, and it's wrong. Life is lions and hyenas on the Discovery channel.

        You can tear apart these people in a debate like so much paper if you don't buy into NAP.

        It's fun.

        Property IS theft AND there's nothing wrong with theft.

        It blows their minds.

    • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

      Where does it say the study is funded by CATO?

      • It doesn't say anywhere that the study is funded by CATO, although there is nothing stopping a bit of friendly back-scratching between golf-course buddies to cross-fund studies so that the interested party gets a piece of paper that supports their argument, without there being any direct financial ties. Which is not to say, of course, that this is an example of such.

        In this case, the author of the study, David Bier, is the Immigration Policy Analyst at the Niskanen Center, which is a basically Libertarian t

  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:08AM (#50353235)

    What the H1B provides is a means for an employee to *NOT* participate in relocation. By offering H1B positions, companies do not actively recruit people from other areas, assist in relocation, the alternative is to open more branch offices in other locations near the groups of people. Instead, they offer the H1B because (1) the cost of that worker is less, and (2) they do not need to provide relocation. Lastly, most H1B workers want a green card. The problem is once the worker starts the green card process they are sort of an indentured servant to the sponsoring company. They cannot quit, they cannot threaten to leave otherwise they loose the green card. This process lasts from 3 to 6 years. If the H1B worker had job mobility as a normal american does, the H1B worker would recognize the low pay, demand higher pay, or move on to another job in the USA leaving the low paying company with a hole. This job mobility (or non-mobility) by the H1B worker solves or causes the problem. I know this, I have been involved with these types of decisions, or watched these types of decisions occur right before me over the last 30+ years writing software.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:09AM (#50353245)

    Also, remember that part of the fight is about _expanding_ the pool of H1-Bs. From the pov of the employers, if current levels of H1Bs mean they aren't getting cheaper labor, then clearly they don't have enough H1-Bs. The study doesn't project what would happen if the number were increased substantially.

  • Misdirection (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Fire_Wraith ( 1460385 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:10AM (#50353247)
    This is BS. The author of TFA is using the third type of lie, statistics, to suggest that H-1Bs aren't having a negative affect, by setting up a strawman argument. Sure, H-1Bs may not increase unemployment, IN AGGREGATE. But that's as easy as saying, "Well, Initech replaced 50 American coders with H-1Bs, but there's a new McDonalds open down the road that hired 60 people at minimum wage, so unemployment is down!"

    There was no mention of salaries, benefits, much less anything specific to particular fields, not even "IT." At most he made an argument that "STEM grads are less likely to be unemployed" but that means nothing, because that can still be true even if they're not being given the opportunities they should.
    • Re:Misdirection (Score:5, Interesting)

      by meta-monkey ( 321000 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @10:02AM (#50353603) Journal

      There was no mention of salaries, benefits, much less anything specific to particular fields, not even "IT."

      You've got the correct conclusion, but incorrect facts. Here's the full study [niskanencenter.org]. They do in fact separate out computer, engineering, and mathematics jobs, and they do compare wages, and do correctly conclude that wages are up. But,

      1) How high would wages be without H1-B competition? Sure, "real annual wages (2015$) in engineering, architectural, computer, and mathematical occupations" is up by a whopping $3000 from 2001 to 2015...during a time when tech companies are stashing billions.

      2) They're doing the same stupid thing everyone does with "the unemployment rate." Pretend I'm an engineer who gets replaced by a an H1-B. While I'm looking for an engineering job, I'm an "unemployed engineer" and show up in the unemployment rate for engineers statistics. If I take a job flipping burgs at McD's in order to not starve to death, I'm no longer an unemployed engineer. I'm an employed fast-food worker, and do not show up on the unemployment statistics. So in this way, yes, employment of H1-Bs can rise, while the unemployment rate for engineers does not budge.

      Somebody read How to Lie With Statistics [amazon.com] and used it for evil instead of good.

    • by godrik ( 1287354 )

      I find it interesting that the chart comparing "time to H1B cap" to "unemployement" and showing correlation is taken as proof that H1B help employement. It reads to me the complete inverse.

      If when there is more unemployment we hire less H1B, it indicates that H1B are used similarly to domestic hires since they follow the same pattern.

  • Supply and Demand (Score:5, Insightful)

    by RoccamOccam ( 953524 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:10AM (#50353255)

    This is just a rewording of the old saw that illegal immigrants are doing the jobs that Americans won't do -- at salaries that are too low. If the flow of H1-Bs dried up, then wages would rise as the American tech workers would become more valuable. As wages rose, then becoming a tech worker would be viewed more favorably.

    With the same evidence, Huff Po could have argued that H1-Bs are depressing wages for American tech workers.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      But Trump doesn't like the H1B program and Obama and Clinton do, so H1B is a grand program all of a sudden. HuffPo is pretty damn partisan and this is how politics works: forget anything they've ever said before.

    • by bigpat ( 158134 )

      This is just a rewording of the old saw that illegal immigrants are doing the jobs that Americans won't do -- at salaries that are too low. If the flow of H1-Bs dried up, then wages would rise as the American tech workers would become more valuable. As wages rose, then becoming a tech worker would be viewed more favorably.

      With the same evidence, Huff Po could have argued that H1-Bs are depressing wages for American tech workers.

      Also, when the cost goes up or availability of low wage workers goes down then it is often technology which is used to make up the difference. That dynamic increases the flow of wealth to STEM workers. Ultimately, from a more Humanistic world view I don't see anything wrong with giving jobs to skilled foreign workers. Yes it does undermine middle class wages, but if these folks become Americans then they have just as much right to make a living as I do. But the H1B guest worker program undermines Amer

  • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:11AM (#50353263)

    Economics 101.
    Supply and Demand: If Demand stays constant and supply goes up, cost for services go down.
    So during the late 1990's we had a High Demand for Tech, and at the current supply, tech workers were getting exceptional pay and benefits. Then during the Clinton Administration they opened the H1B1 for tech workers, because they saw this as a permanent increase in demand, and wouldn't meet supply in the near future.
    However after Y2k settled down and a new infrastructure was setup demand settled (The tech bubble pop), however there is now a glut of tech workers, and H1B1 and the new infrastructures allowed for outsourced IT services. Thus so many tech workers, caused the salaries of tech workers to plummet.

    Now technology demand is going up as the Y2k infrastructure is approaching 20 years old. So IT worker salaries are on the rise.... H1B1 increases will cause a drop in salaries, so many tech workers will leave work, as the lower salaries will not be acceptable.

    However if a company is trying to stay competitive, and they find if they layoff their local workforce, and hire H1B1 for half the price, then they can make up for the cost of high turnover.

  • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:18AM (#50353307) Homepage Journal

    Check this action out: 13 million jobs added [rawstory.com], yet from the same article:

    The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent, the lowest level since 1977.

    And those employed only part-time who wanted full-time jobs was little changed at 6.3 million.

    So, the actual unemployment rate (the labor force participation rate) was unchanged in spite of thirteen million new jobs, and the number of people who need full-time work to support themselves but are only working part-time is also unchanged, meaning that the number of Americans with unmet needs was unchanged.

    How can there be 13M new jobs yet Americans' status hasn't improved?

    • Minimum wage jobs do not improve your status. You are aware that many displaced American workers have had to find jobs that pay *less* which means their status declines, even though they are employed. Understand Zippy..
  • They are not comparing wages for ALL H1B workers, only the "Highly Skilled" ones. So they exclude all the low wage H1B workers meaning they are comparing the Elites against a country in recession and come to the conclusion things are fine. A more accurate comparison is how wages/benefits have dropped steadily at the same time the Corporations are claiming a massive skills shortage (supply and demand doesn't work that way).
  • by nine-times ( 778537 ) <nine.times@gmail.com> on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:33AM (#50353407) Homepage

    But the data show that over the last decade, as businesses have requested more H-1Bs, they also expanded jobs for Americans.

    So if this is the "refutation" that H-1B holders replace American workers, I would say this is insufficient proof. It could be that in businesses that are expanding, you see more of both H-1Bs and jobs for Americans, simply because there are more jobs in total.

    Like if I'm running a business and I need to hire 2 new programmers for an American office, and I can hire one H-1B worker at a much cheaper price, maybe I hire the H-1B worker and 1 American workers rather than 2 new American workers. In that case, it's true that the H-1B worker is taking a job that would have gone to an American, and also true that as I'm requesting more H-1B, I'm hiring more Americans. Of course, this is a simplified example.

    Now I'm not opposed to immigration. I do think there's value in welcoming the best and brightest, even understanding that on a small scale, they'll displace some workers. I'm just not sure what this thing actually proves.

  • Go abroad (Score:2, Interesting)

    by prefec2 ( 875483 )

    A lot of people here in the forum fear those people with H1B visas, as they are used to lower wages and increase unemployment. Instead of whining about this obvious bad situation in the US, you could yourself look at relocating yourself to another country. For example you can get paid between 35-55 k€ a year in Germany as a coder or software engineer after leaving university. In US equivalent you have to add another 7% for healthcare and 5% for retirement plan which would be today $43.77k to $68.79k pe

  • You mean... (Score:5, Informative)

    by oh_my_080980980 ( 773867 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @09:37AM (#50353441)
    You mean...Disney didn't replace their US tech employees with H-1B Visa holders? So their US employees did not train their H-1B Visa replacements?

    You mean...Microsoft didn't lay off 18,000 people and then lobby Congress to increase the number of H-1B Visas?

    You mean...there isn't economic research that refutes that article's premise: "As longtime researchers of the STEM workforce and immigration who have separately done in-depth analyses on these issues, and having no self-interest in the outcomes of the legislative debate, we feel compelled to report that none of us has been able to find any credible evidence to support the IT industry’s assertions of labor shortages." http://www.epi.org/publication... [epi.org]

    Sounds like a page out of the Philip Morris playbook: "cigarettes don't cause cancer" - "H-1B Visa holders don't displace American workers"
  • ... I've got a bridge you might want to buy.

    1. Over ten years? The whole H1B visa thing has been an accelerating situation. I'd like to see a study that focused on the last couple years.

    2. If you read the report they refer a lot to what politicians are saying which is a bad sign in a study. It sounds like a political argument.

    3. The correlation versus causation in this "study" is ridiculous... they say "company X hires more stem people than company Y and company X also hires more people period"... and they

  • of course they do. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward

    At my place of employ, H-1B absolutely replace US tech employees. HR here is required to, on some regularity, advertise the H-1B jobs as "open" and entertain applications for the role. The reality of that is that HR advertises for tech skills that we don't even use ... for instance, about a year after starting for the company I noticed a job opening for a developer position that needed "VAX/VMS, Oracle, and Cobol experience" ... funny enough, I happened to know a guy who had over a decade of experience wi

  • This is obviously counter to the prevailing thought flow here, and I'm more than willing to admin that companies can exploit both H1B Visas AND the employees hired under it, but I've never seen /.ers discuss much about how it would affect overall competitiveness of American companies if they could not hire cheap labour from developing countries and bring them in. Some points I see, qualitatively are: 1) Companies in developing world will have a huge cost advantage in IT, and the more significant IT costs a
  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @11:02AM (#50354013) Journal

    "...Remember, this is about aggregates, rather than whether some specific job has been replaced...." ...which means it's about lying.
    The submitter/editor is specifically trying to contradict what you know otherwise to be true, and so had to remind you that the story's data need to be specifically interpreted to be true.

  • by ErichTheRed ( 39327 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @11:20AM (#50354197)

    I've been through this on both sides, working for the outsourcer and the outsourcee (as a US citizen for US companies.) What I've seen happen in most instances of worker replacement is this -- CIO signs a huge outsourcing deal with Tata, Infosys, CSC, IBM, HP, Xerox, HCL or one of the other huge consulting companies. This company gets a fixed price per year to deliver the same services the customer's IT department delivered, and this price is usually significantly less than they previously paid for IT employees. (We'll ignore time and materials, change orders, rework, etc. etc. that push the price back up eventually.) Because the outsourcing company has to make a profit on the deal, their task is to provide the minimum service required to avoid contract cancellation, and drive the cheapest cost possible to make it happen. Usually, about 10% of the IT department remains with the company, mostly the business analysts, project managers and other touchy-feely roles that can't be easily done remotely. Some percentage is laid off immediately, and the balance transfers over to the outsourcer. Over time, these workers begin being replaced by H-1Bs or offshore labor because of cost pressures. H-1B labor is brought in to fill roles that absolutely can't be done from some call center environment, and the remaining ones (day to day administration, help desk, etc.) get sent offshore or into a sort of sweatshop "sysadmin farm." This is directly due to cost pressure, and service suffers because of it.

    Companies might "create jobs" but they're generally not IT jobs in environments like this. I'm very lucky and now have a system architect level job that I've earned through years of experience in the trenches. What I worry about is that these low level jobs that new grads learn the ropes on are getting harder to find. As it is, I'm often in the position of just telling an offshore team what to do. I don't think arrangements like this are sustainable because you're not building up the next generation of techies to take the high level jobs later on.

    I don't know what's taught in MBA school, but I guarantee a good portion of it is telling them that numbers on a spreadsheet are the only data that deserves any weight. I've seen IT outsourcing fail to produce the desired results far more often than it has succeeded. If your company does anything with IT beyond keeping the lights on, you'll be disappointed with an outsourcing arrangement -- but the numbers don't lie, at least in the short term.

    Here's what I'd like to see happen: IT and dev workers should create a professional organization similar to the AMA, Screen Actors' Guild. It would have to be anything but a "union" because techies have this individualist streak that prevents them from wanting to associate with others in that way. This organization would do what the AMA does -- limit the number of new entrants, lobby for laws to be passed that favor its members, and ensure professional standards. Low level tech work would be on an apprenticeship basis, which would allow people to learn from experienced folks rather than the hodgepodge of self-teaching, vendor certification, etc. High level engineers/architects would be professionals, with responsibilities similar to actual, real PEs. I know most people think they're super-special and would never dare to compare themselves to their peers, let alone associate with them. But this is the best long-term solution -- it keeps tech a well-paying career, ensures that we can bribe Congressmen the same way businesses do, etc.

  • by bigpat ( 158134 ) on Thursday August 20, 2015 @11:30AM (#50354305)
    Like I've said before. If you are going to make an argument for H1B visas then it should be based on jobs where real apparent scarcity of talent has been shown to have driven up salaries. In other words, Doctors, Lawyers, CEOs.... professions with layer upon layer of protectionism. Once those salaries are down closer to a median income, then we can talk about needing to import a bunch of indentured servants who are clearly in-fact lowering the prevailing wages of middle income American families. And if you just want more people overall, then increase immigration quotas. We need immigration of people that want to come here, not hundreds of thousands of indentured servants like we are Saudi Arabia.

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