Tweaking The Math Behind Political Representation 322
mlimber writes "Nature magazine's news section has an interesting story about how the seats in the US House of Representatives should be divided up. The problem is that the population isn't evenly divided by the number of seats in the House (435). So how should one allocate the fractional parts? The current method tends to favor big states, while a recent proposal by a mathematician is for what he calls a 'minimally unfair' allotment. He is predicting 'one person, one vote' challenges on this topic in the near future."
eh... (Score:3, Informative)
Solving the wrong problem (Score:5, Insightful)
A vastly more critical glitch is that it is possible to draw congressional boundaries in such a way as to increase the influence of demographics tending toward electing one party and decrease the influence of the demographics tending toward the other, and the people who have the power to redraw districts barely even bother to hide the fact that they're doing so anymore. Solving that glitch with a means to draw boundaries that is guaranteed to be impartial, so that the elected representatives actually did reflect the preferences of the people electing them-- now that would be a serious improvement to democracy.
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Yes, gerrymandering would be just as technically possible under m
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One potential drawback in your system is that substantial minority populations, which may be spread across multiple districts but not large enough to take a seat in any individual district, may fail to gain any seats in any district (i.e no representation whatsoever), even though there may be enough of them in the aggregate to warrant a minority number of seats. This would be particularly true in a "winner take all" system where all of the seats in a district or if the district only has one seat goes to the winner with the runners up getting nothing.
Yes, many people consider that a problem, but it is a general problem in systems with single-member districts and no proportional representation, like the current system in the U.S. (and in Canada and the UK, my other examples), whether or not they have non-partisan redistricting or politicized gerrymandering. This problem is a common argument in favour of proportional representation.
I have also heard this problem used as an argument in favour of gerrymandering. The idea is that you could gerrymander s
Census - not accurate (Score:2, Informative)
This won't solve anything, because census data is not very accurate. The Constitution only authorizes Congress to require that numbers of people be collected. Other information, such as race, income, or any other measurement are voluntary. Many people either do not provide additional information, or deliberately mis-represent the data. I for one only provide the data is required by the Constitution, becau
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This won't solve anything, because census data is not very accurate. The Constitution only authorizes Congress to require that numbers of people be collected. Other information, such as race, income, or any other measurement are voluntary. Many people either do not provide additional information, or deliberately mis-represent the data.
I agree that census data can be incorrect in terms of population and especially in terms of other measures like race and income. However:
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I see two problems with this scheme. The first is what mechanism ensures the boundary comission does its job impartially? My impression is "independent" or "nonpartisan" positions and groups are a figment of poly-sci theory. Never seen one in the real world. I don't see anything in your proposal that would eliminate gerrymandering.
In fact, it would be much worse. By allowing differences in district populations, you've created another degree of freedom for people who want to game the system. Off the t
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I see two problems with this scheme. The first is what mechanism ensures the boundary comission does its job impartially? My impression is "independent" or "nonpartisan" positions and groups are a figment of poly-sci theory. Never seen one in the real world.
I agree that there is nothing in my proposal that will technically prevent gerrymandering, as I acknowledged in my original post, but I strongly disagree with your assertion that independent or non-partisan groups are "never seen in the real world". My own experience is that they are commonplace. I reason I included links to maps of current districts in parts of Canada was to provide some evidence of this.
I expected this particular criticism. In my experience, people often get the government they
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Geographic representation is pretty pointless in this interconnected world, though with our representative system we should probably do it per state, which would put the small states at a disadvantage as only a few of its political parties could be represented in congress (with only 3 representatives) versus larger states which could
Re:Solving the wrong problem (Score:5, Informative)
Not necessarily. Gerrymandering [wikipedia.org] is the art of changing the boundaries to gain an advantage. In a simple way, this image [wikipedia.org] shows an even distribution redivided to give one party the advantage.
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Now manipulating the pool of voters to reflect more for a certain party might be a concern. But in either way, the elected win and election by people voting for them so they reflect the people who voted fo
Re:Solving the wrong problem (Score:5, Insightful)
Not quite. Consider the possibility of a state that is 55% Republican, 45% Democrat, with 20 Representatives. Ideally, any districting should elect about 11 Republicans and 9 Democrats.
It is a relatively trivial exercise, however, to divide the districts up so that 20 Republicans and 0 Democrats are elected.
And it's not even especially hard to divide them up so that 3 Republicans and 17 Democrats are elected.
While it is true that each of those districts is reflective of the voting population, alas, it's not necessarily true that the results at the State level are reflective of their voting populations.
Re:Solving the wrong problem (Score:4, Informative)
If for some reason an elegantly simple example, such as the one in the Wikipedia article, is not sufficient, how about some real world examples [rangevoting.org]? Some of these districts are downright ludicrous. Are you seriously trying to tell me these district lines were drawn in an effort to create fair and unbiased voting districts?
bullcrap (Score:4, Informative)
My high school government teacher had a brilliant exercise for us: he gave us a map of Indiana with info on how each county voted (i.e. Democrat/Republican, to keep it simple). Then he assigned every student a party and everyone could draw districts such that their party would win ALL 10 seats.
The idea is to divide and conquer. By splitting up the opposing party's strong areas and absorbing pieces of them into your party's areas, you could essentially neutralize them.
The take home lesson is that whichever party is in power when the census is completed and redistricting happens is at a big advantage and they DO use it.
So sure, technically the representative is elected by the people in their district, but that district is no longer cohesive and is totally arbitrary (where arbitrary = convenient for the party that drew it).
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I don't see a problem with it. Most of the Gerrymandering claims are by coincidence. You can't redraw boundaries without favoring the party in power when they are in power. Try it sometime. Look at the actual difference in the population density- before the census and after.
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Seriously, be honest.
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I mean I read the titles and it says create bipartisan district and ensure minority representation. And my question is why? Why should a state attempt to do anything that deviates from the existing conditions? The state is the state that it is because of the current status quo. Are you suggesting that the state redefine itself every 10 years because of the census?
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So, did you play the game?
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You're glossing over a huge problem here. Others have pointed out the mechanism at work, and if you need a concrete example, just look at Texas. Before the Republicans redrew the district boundaries 2003 you had a state where every statewide elected office was held by a Republican, and yet the congressional delegation was majority Democrat. The Democrats had controlled the redistricting process in 2000 and had drawn district lines to give themselves advantage.
After the 2003 redistricting the Texas Deleg
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Second, I really don't care about Gerrymandering because it is only a short term issue. Generally, is the districts are only redrawn after the census, See troubles in Texas, the population grows out of the stereotypes places on them by the voters before the next census. In other words, if you shape the districts toda
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The people who voted for them and the people they represent are not one in the same. If a district is gerrymandered so that 60% of the district always votes the party line up, then 40% of the voters are denied accurate representation. Then you will have a congressman looking to keep the party line voters on the hook instead of looking after the best interests of whatever town or county that their district covers most of. The incumbent o
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Just like the last presidential election, 40% or better of the people aren't being r
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How can it be unconstitutional? (Score:2)
They've finally found it! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:They've finally found it! (Score:5, Funny)
What about the minor candidates? (Score:2)
Edelman method = Non starter (Score:3, Insightful)
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Correction (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Correction (Score:4, Informative)
eu parliament (Score:3, Interesting)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_in_the_European_Parliament [wikipedia.org]
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what am I missing here? 1/453 and 2/3? I'm not sure what that is supposed to mean?
Re:Correction (Score:4, Insightful)
No, it doesn't. It says that (except for the period prior to the first Census, for which it spells out exact by-state representation) each state will have a number of representatives assigned in proportion to population based on a census count, except that each state will have at least one representative. It further states that the total number of representatives shall not be greater than 1 for every 30,000 people (that's not that the number will be 1/30,000: if that was the rule, the House would have, based on the 2000 census, 9,381 members — which would certainly reduce the voting-power impact of rounding problems from fractional seats.)
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Wyoming has (per the 2000 Census apportionment count), ~1/568 (~0.176%) of the US population. It has 1/435 (~0.230%) of the seats in the House of Representatives.
California has ~12.06% of the population, ~12.18% of the seats in the House.
I'm not seeing a lot of favoritism toward big states here.
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Fixing the wrong problem (Score:5, Insightful)
If you want to fix a problem, come up with a better algorithm for drawing district boundaries. Right now the party in charge DOES use an algorithm, one designed to create the pessimal boundaries that ensure its maximum advantage.
Of course, there are many such algorithms, and no matter how fair they are the legislature would vote to choose whichever one favors them best.
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If you want to fix a problem, design a system where the drawing of district boundaries doesn't matter much instead of one where it does. Its easier to do, for one thing: simply increase the number of seats per district, and adopt a preference voting system that generates proportional results, like STV. This makes it difficult to do much to ensure "safe" seats or enhance partisan advantage by messing with district
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There is one, and some states used it until (I think) the Supremes ruled it out: members are elected "at large," instead of representing specific districts and share the responsibility for representing the entire population of the state among them.
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It's called "the Senate."
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I kind of like the original Constitutional idea (Score:3, Interesting)
The number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty thousand
A house of representatives with 10,000 people might actually be unwieldy enough to actually have to do business, rather than listen to speeches all the time.
Misunderstanding the original Constitutional idea (Score:2)
versus how the system really works (Score:2)
The New Hampshire House has 375 to 400 members. NH House of Representatives [state.nh.us] They are each paid $200 a year.
New Hampshire has a population of 1,315,000. New Hampshire Quick Facts [census.gov]
In such a system, where do you think the real power lies?
a) with the executive and the 24 member New Hampshire Senate
b) with the House committees
c) the party leadership
Re:I kind of like the original Constitutional idea (Score:5, Funny)
Perfect!
Re:I kind of like the original Constitutional idea (Score:5, Interesting)
What is the largest number a person can adequately represent? I actually believe that 30K might be on the high side of that estimation. Right now, a Representative in the House isn't beholden to anyone other than the special interest groups. The Special Interest Groups only need to focus on 435 people currently. If they had to spread their $ around to more people, the amount they could offer each would be much less and more easily overcome by a small band of normal constituents.
I actuall see no problem with more representation, currently we're getting less and less. You tell me, do you feel adequately represented by anyone, let alone by your congress critter?
17th amendment (Score:5, Insightful)
Very insightful! I've been saying this for a long time now. When the 17th Amendment was ratified, populists thought that direct election of US Senators would be a great move for democracy! Instead, they shot themselves in the foot. Do you really think your Senator cares a fig about your opinion? You're one among millions. Back when s/he was accountable to the state's legislature though, you can be darn sure he paid attention to their few dozen opinions. Losing the support of any one legislator was significant.
Making Senators into super-Representatives was just silly. The House has a 2-year term because the electorate is fickle. Senators have a 6-year term because (in theory) your legislators are wise enough to make more thoughtful decisions. If we trust them enough to make laws for the state, can't we trust them enough to select Senators? But no, now we are stuck with our fickle decisions for 6 whole years - and 6 years after they make dumb decisions they can be sure we've forgotten about them, so they are even less accountable than ever!
Increase the House membership to 1000, and repeal the 17th Amendment. Those are the two best things we could do to "fix" the Congress in a relatively easy manner.
Awesome. Mod this up. (Score:2)
Hardly... (Score:2)
Comparatively, to equal the level of representation in France, we'd have to have nearly 3,000 people in the House, which is roughly the number of delegates to the National People's Congress in China and they seem to be doing just fine. Granted, it's much easier to count unanimous votes...
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One person, One vote only IN your state (Score:5, Interesting)
Therefore, for every 1 vote for a Republican in Wyoming, 60 votes for a Democrat in California are needed to cancel each other out. And this mathematician wants to make it more "fair" by giving more votes to smaller states?
Re:One person, One vote only IN your state (Score:4, Informative)
Ummm, I only see one representative listed for Wyoming on the official US House of Representatives [house.gov] website. The guy wasn't suggesting adding representatives to Wyoming, but to Montana and some other states. Montana had a population of 902,195 in the 2000 census and 1 representative. That works out to a voting power of 0.00011% per person in Montana. California had a population of 33,871,648 and has 53 representatives (0.000156% per person).
His model wasn't trying to be fair, just less unfair. To be fair Wyoming would either need a fractional vote or the size of the House would have to be increased until each person in the house represented about 500,000 people. Since this isn't possible from his model's point of view he does the next best thing (removing votes from large states that have fewer people per representative to smaller states that currently have more people per representative).
With that said, I agree that small states don't need more representation in the House. They are more than adequately compensated by having 2 votes in the Senate. To put in perspective how powerful that is, imagine that even if San Francisco had 2 senators the Wyoming senators would still be representing fewer people. San Francisco has a population of about 750,000 (4th largest in California) vs. the population of 500,000 for the entire state of Wyoming.
Re:One person, One vote only IN your state (Score:4, Informative)
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No, he wants to make the House of Representatives more fair. The House is supposed to be apportioned according to population, with each state receiving at least one representative. The Senate, on the other hand, has two representatives per state, regardless of population. Each state gets electoral votes equal to its representatives plus senators -- and that's where the small-state bias in the Presidential election comes from.
If you want to remove that bias, change the number of electoral votes to be eq
Re:One person, One vote only IN your state (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:One person, One vote only IN your state (Score:4, Informative)
some of us have no representation (Score:4, Insightful)
Add more seats (Score:3, Interesting)
I understand the cost involved - just the buildings alone will be a fortune. But consider how hard it is now for your representative to stay in touch with his or her constituency. The average size of a Congressional district is just below 650,000! That is three times what it was at the turn of the last century. Considering the minimum was set at 30,000, the current sizes are way out of whack compared to the probable intent.
With 650,000 constituents,it really is no surprise how important campaign donations have become. Worried about lobbiests and PAC's? Well, here is the root of the problem. Yours is a voice in the crowd.
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Yes, money always gets taken seriously by elected officials.
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That's why to a large extent the States (and even larger extent The People) were originally suppose to be the major government entity, with the Congress tasked with only 18 authorized jobs to do. One of those is to show up one day a year, since the framers thought that there wouldn't be enough work.
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As others have mentioned, at the original proportions used when the legislative branch was created, we'd need 10,000 representatives.
Having all 10,000 attempt to meet in a single location is obviously absurd -- in a 12 hour meeting, each rep would have just 4.3 seconds to speak; the b
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With more seats, districts will be smaller.
In smaller districts, less money is needed for campaigns.
Stop sending representatives to DC, and have them serve from home, out of the clutches of PACs and special interests.
Cut the pay to something rational.
PROFIT! (sorry, had to throw that in).
Seriously, there is a lot on this at www.thirty-thousand.org. Check it out and see how we've been shafted since 1910, when Congress sto
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-Ted
The REAL problem (Score:3, Interesting)
1. Divide each state into a grid of 1 mile by 1 mile "chunks"
2. Find the population of each "chunk" using census data.
3. Start in the Northern-West corner and start adding blocks to the district moving west to east and dropping down one row and changing direction each time you drop down.
"Drop down, change direction and increase speed" Lurr from Anthology on Interest 2: Futurama
4. When your population count hits what 1 representative can represent, start a new district.
5. Repeat
6. ????
7. Profit from special interest kickbacks and pork barrel spending.
The REAL problem is mountains (Score:2, Interesting)
I agree completely, we need to draw congressional districts objectively. gerrymandering completely subverts the original (and very progressive) ideas about how the House should function. It's the most directly democratic part of the Federal Gov't.
regarding TFA's pr
Third House (Score:4, Interesting)
At the end, every law needs a majority vote in this new house in order to pass. Constitutional amendments require a 2/3rds or 3/4ths vote in order to pass.
If you can't convince a random sample (including people of all national origins, races, religions, sexual orientations, etc.) that a law is a good idea, it simply doesn't pass. The limited term and not being directly involved in the debate (only listening and then X rounds of questions) means that politics and political shenanigans are reduced to a minimum.
We also give this house the ability to override Presidental veto and Presdiential pardon/commutation. If 2/3rds of this house (alone) agrees that the President should not have vetoed a law or pardoned someone, then the President's action is null and void (i.e.: law passes, or person still goes to jail for obstruction of justice)
What do you think?
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Having such a large and diverse group of people could lead to really unpredictable group dynamics, so there'd need to more formal processes than just brainstorming to generate questions. At the same time any professional moderators would have to be sure not to color the proceedings with their opinions. It would be hard.
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After centuries of titles entitled to a seat there falling through various hands, it is probably the most diverse legislative body in the world. There are plenty of Lords with no property or income other than their stipend for attending Parliament.
hawk
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A More Perfect Constitution (Score:2)
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His desire to make the Senate more representative is just stupid. If the Senate is seen as a representative body then why have it? That's what the House is for. What we need to do with the Senate is go back to the original constitutional understanding that Senators represent the state legislatures, not the people of the state directly. We need to repeal the 17th amendment, it undermines the idea of our federal government as a blending of democratic and republican ideals.
His id
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Its been a month or so since I finished the book, but I don't remember any that were actually good. Still, he's right that the broad issues are ones that need to be discussed, and the Constitution shouldn't be viewed as some kind of unchangeable divine ordinance.
Its also is the only thing that is still expressly prohibited to be done by amendment in the Constitution, so you can't actually do it.
It would be better
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No way!
There's no way another constitutional convention could ever happen these days and we would even get half as good a deal as the one we have now. We'd probably have all our same rights, there would just be plenty of wording in there that would let the government and corporate entities ignore them when they felt like it.
A More Perfect Constitution (Score:2)
King Solomon solution (Score:2)
[scene: 5 representatives from state X being sworn in.]
Congratulations! Now Mr. Representative #5, your honor, if you would just step this way...
[off stage: chain saw noises]
This method is bound to succeed (Score:2)
compared to WHAT? the SENATE? (Score:2)
"Waaaah. The number of Representatives isn't MATHEMATICALLY PRECISE!!!!" Waaaaaah!"
Compared to WHAT??? The SENATE??? Where Alaska gets as much representation as New York or Texas? Good Move. Oh, and then he says it favours big states...
Hello! Reality calling! The SENATE is the OTHER HALF of the legislative branch - and it favours small states - by A LOT. So, frankly, I think the TINY big state bias in the house is VERY small potatoes compared to the obscenity of the Senate.
se
Bias towards red states? (Score:2, Interesting)
So, basically "red" states would gain seats and "blue" states would lose them?
At a quick glance, though, it does seem he has a point: Montanta has almost a million citizens per seat, while most states are around 700k.
http://en.wikipedi [wikipedia.org]
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Each state has one electoral vote per seat it has in the Congress.
The Congress is not just the House of Representatives.
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Instant runoff is a bad system. Throwing away part of someone's preference is a sure way to record an inaccurate preference. You need to evaluate them all simultaneously not sequentially - a Condorcet method. A preference for 4th place over 5th is just as important as a preference for 1st place over 2nd. You can't throw away the former just because they were "low" numbers! You may think Al Gore and Ralph Nader both stink, but if you think Ralph stinks less, that should still count for something!
The Alabama Paradox (Score:3, Informative)
that's little compensation (Score:3)
Yeah, and the current method of allocating senate seats is favoring little states big time. That's one of the reasons our agricultural policies are so messed up and why the little states are getting money from the big states.
There's nothing to be "corrected" here, at least not until the allocation of senate seats is changed substantially.
Smaller, not bigger (Score:2)
Legitimacy (Score:3, Insightful)
As a side note, I would like to take this opportunity to complain that people too frequently equate democracy with freedom. There is nothing about a democracy that means that it increases your level of freedom. People in this country could vote to take away all my money and forcibly sterilize me, and it would be no less of an infringement on my basic freedoms than if some psychopath broke into my house, stole everything I had and cut my balls off.
This is not new (Score:3, Insightful)
The posts complaining about gerrymandering have more of a point that trying to reallocate how the House is allocated. And if you want a really big problem that needs to be addressed then look no further than the electoral college. Of course that one depends on which side you fell on in the last couple of elections.
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That's a really bad idea. If all the states were equal sizes, this would be arguably a good idea (I think candidate-centered elections are better than party-list, so I'd oppose it even then, but it would at least make some sense.)
As it is, states have between 1 and 53 repr