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China Microsoft Politics Technology

China Will Use AI To Disrupt Elections in the US, South Korea and India, Microsoft Warns (theguardian.com) 157

Posted by msmash from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
China will attempt to disrupt elections in the US, South Korea and India this year with artificial intelligence-generated content after making a dry run with the presidential poll in Taiwan, Microsoft has warned. From a report: The US tech firm said it expected Chinese state-backed cyber groups to target high-profile elections in 2024, with North Korea also involved, according to a report by the company's threat intelligence team published on Friday. "As populations in India, South Korea and the United States head to the polls, we are likely to see Chinese cyber and influence actors, and to some extent North Korean cyber actors, work toward targeting these elections," the report reads.

Microsoft said that "at a minimum" China will create and distribute through social media AI-generated content that "benefits their positions in these high-profile elections." The company added that the impact of AI-made content was minor but warned that could change. "While the impact of such content in swaying audiences remains low, China's increasing experimentation in augmenting memes, videos and audio will continue -- and may prove effective down the line," said Microsoft. Microsoft said in the report that China had already attempted an AI-generated disinformation campaign in the Taiwan presidential election in January. The company said this was the first time it had seen a state-backed entity using AI-made content in a bid to influence a foreign election.
UPDATE: Last fall, America's State Department "accused the Chinese government of spending billions of dollars annually on a global campaign of disinformation," reports the Wall Street Journal: In an interview, Tom Burt, Microsoft's head of customer security and trust, said China's disinformation operations have become much more active in the past six months, mirroring rising activity of cyberattacks linked to Beijing. "We're seeing them experiment," Burt said. "I'm worried about where it might go next."
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China Will Use AI To Disrupt Elections in the US, South Korea and India, Microsoft Warns More

China Will Use AI To Disrupt Elections in the US, South Korea and India, Microsoft Warns

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  • Not really much to disrupt (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DarkRookie2 ( 5551422 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @10:44AM (#64372298)
    Our options are old piece of shit #1 and old piece of shit #2.
    Really don't see how China can make thing worse than we already have made ourselves.

    • Re:Not really much to disrupt (Score:4, Insightful)

      by laughingskeptic ( 1004414 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @10:50AM (#64372316)
      You are not thinking like an information operations person. Think fake, but effective October surprise news releases. Fake videos that create credible SWAT situations near a key polling place. All you have to do is dishearten people into not voting or make it harder for one subset of people to vote.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by DarkRookie2 ( 5551422 )
        What does it matter? Our options are shit. It really isn't going to matter who wins.

        • Re: Not really much to disrupt (Score:5, Insightful)

          by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Friday April 05, 2024 @11:26AM (#64372426) Homepage Journal

          Yes, it will.

          Biden is shit.

          Trump is shittier.

          The only practical policy difference between them is that Biden will honor international law regarding refugees and Trump won't. But everything else Biden is doing, Trump will do more of. Remember how his tax cuts for the rich (aka corporations) didn't expire, but his tax cuts for citizens did? He will sell us out way harder.

          It's true that both options are terrible. That doesn't mean one isn't more terrible.

          • Re: Not really much to disrupt (Score:4, Informative)

            by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @12:22PM (#64372598) Journal

            The only policy difference I care about between them is that Biden will honor international law regarding refugees and Trump won't.

            FTFY

          • Re: Not really much to disrupt (Score:5, Insightful)

            by smooth wombat ( 796938 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @12:25PM (#64372616) Journal
            The only practical policy difference between them is that Biden will honor international law regarding refugees and Trump won't.

            Biden won't genuflect to the Muscovite Midget and tell him he's free to attack our allies in Europe. Nor will Biden tell the Justice Department to investigate anyone who said a mean thing about him.

          • Re: Not really much to disrupt (Score:5, Insightful)

            by RazorSharp ( 1418697 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @12:52PM (#64372710)

            Sorry, but this is just bullshit. Biden is far from my top choice, but Trump actively attempted to dismantle our government and lease it out to cronies. Biden may not be fantastic, but the most terrible things that have happened under his watch were enacted by the Supreme Court installed by Trump.

            I remember this same bullshit was spouted about Gore and Bush in 2000. The Simpsons famously mocked them as clone aliens. Everyone thought they had no choice, that there was no difference between the two. Notably, Bush won because a bunch of Green Party whackos voted for Nader because they thought Gore was no better than Bush. But then Bush won and, among the many terrible things he did, he loosened environmental regulations as much as he could and started environmentally disastrous wars. Gore, meanwhile, would dedicate his life to environmentalism.

            There are many issues where things will be no different, regardless of who occupies the White House in 2025. However, there are many more issues where it will be crucial.

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by Equuleus42 ( 723 )

              I remember this same bullshit was spouted about Gore and Bush in 2000. The Simpsons famously mocked them as clone aliens.

              Kang and Kodos [wikipedia.org] actually mocked Clinton and Gore for the 1996 election, not Gore and Bush for the 2000 election.

            • There are real differences between them in relatively minor ways considering they both support permitting corporations to sell us and our ecosystem down the river for a last hurrah.

              • That is just the status quo. Without a congress and judiciary willing to do something about it, there is nothing the president can really do. If you look at the Biden agency appointments, it is clear he has tried to some degree, but the Supreme Court is now of the opinion that federal agencies have no authority to police corporate malfeasance.

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              I find it odd that nobody has mentioned the fact that he is being prosecuted for election fraud, and attempted an insurrection when he lost at the end of his last term.

              Am I the only one who thinks he is running to try to avoid jail and bankruptcy?

        • The target is not any particular candidate. The goal is to erode trust in government institutions by making people question the legitimacy of the election process.

        • What does it matter? Our options are shit. It really isn't going to matter who wins.

          If it was a choice between the guy that says immigrants are sub human and a ham sandwich, the only moral choice is letting a ham sandwich run the country.

          Acting like it doesn't matter is intellectually dishonest, plain stupid, or evil.

        • Spoken like a middle class straight white man without major health issues or a woman in their life who may get pregnant.

          And who doesn't care about the US's role in the world.

          And who doesn't care about US infrastructure.

          Or democracy.

        • Wait, did Biden publicly state he's going to spend his next term using every toolin the Fed's arsenal to get retribution against his political rivals and marginalized groups? Did he state he'd happily take money from foreign governments to pay off debts? Has he stated he'd like to disassemble the Constitution to the point where it only applied to him and his cult? Did he already attempt a coup and fail?
          No?

          Then shut the ever loving fuck up about them being anything even close to the same. I'm not a huge fan

      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        by ArchieBunker ( 132337 )

        Let's play spin the wheel, what talking point will the October surprise be?

        Hunter Biden
        DEI
        Illegal immigrants
        Trans people
        Benghazi
        CRT (been a while since this one was thrown around)
        Hillary's emails
        BLM

        Place your bets now!

        • If they could come up with something original, they'd be off making real money in Hollywood

      • There's no question that China can influence the election, the question is: in what way? Trump started the trade war with China and has been overtly antagonistic to them. They don't like him at all. So it might seem like the obvious route would be to support Biden. But that would put China at odds with Russia, and Russia's own efforts to disrupt the election. And China may feel that their interests are more aligned with Russia, even if that means a Trump presidency.

        Russia certainly has a bigger stake in

    • Re:Not really much to disrupt (Score:5, Insightful)

      by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @11:05AM (#64372362)
      They vastly prefer Trump to Biden. The goal is to weaken the country. Last century, outside hostile forces tended to support the Democrats, since the party still had lots of true socialists and communists who wanted to take a flamethrower to the US system, plus lower-educated les-informed (blue collar) workers tended to vote dem and they were susceptible to manipulation by misinformation. If someone from the outside wanted to wreck the US successes, the Democrats were the natural party to support.

      That's been switched. This century, those easily-duped voters are now voting republican, and the Dems have jettisoned all of their truly anti-democracy people. Well with the exception of Sanders, who is the last serious socialist in the party. Meanwhile, the GOP is the party that's welcoming the people who want to knock over the system. So, they get the support from China and Russia.

      • Re:Not really much to disrupt (Score:4, Insightful)

        by ArchieBunker ( 132337 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @11:18AM (#64372402)

        still had lots of true socialists and communists who wanted to take a flamethrower to the US system,

        Lol, who were these socialists and communists of the democratic party? Bernie Sanders is pretty progressive and I haven't heard a peep from him about seizing the manufacturing. Unless you think rich people paying a the same tax percentages as the middle class is socialist. Hint: You're not a temporarily embarrassed millionaire.

        • Read the guy’s Wikipedia page. If that doesn’t scream “SOCIALIST” to you, your sensors need recalibration. Sanders is a true-believing socialist that held his nose, rebranded himself as a social-democrat, and joined the Dems so that he would’t be completely sidelined by society.

      • You have an interesting but bizarre view of American politics and history.

      • They vastly prefer Trump to Biden.

        In theory they shouldn't, because Trump is the one proposing a 10% across the board tariff on Chinese imports. But maybe they think his tendency to generally disengage with the whole world is enough to offset that, or maybe they think they can bribe him to drop the tariff idea.

      • Sanders may be left of left, supporting public control of healthcare and prisons (gasp) but he's still a capitalist and believes in America. Trying to smear him as a threat to the American Wayâ is bullshit.

    • Think of e.g. a massive panic caused by Orson Welles' radio drama from 1938 [wikipedia.org] but on a larger scale as in the "perfect storm" situation with the politically driven US society polarization and the known tendency of some TV stations to broadcast anything for the viewership - including blatant lies they're fully aware off.

    • The stable orange genius was an absolute boon to Russia & China. Now, Biden's unwavering support for genocide in Gaza is just helping Russia & China to get ahead. It looks like the days of the US empire are coming to a close. When it happens, it'll happen quickly.

    • Our options are old piece of shit #1 and old piece of shit #2.
      Really don't see how China can make thing worse than we already have made ourselves.

      >RFK Jr. has entered the chat!

    • I think you need to re-evaluate your point. I agree with the lack of options here.

      But maybe the concern is that they've already disrupted our elections which is why we have an election of uninspiring geriatrics. Russia is an authoritarian kleptocracy, and that model is now unwinding. China is facing a major debt crisis, an unsustainable economic model, and most notably an economic model depending on security on the oceans that they cannot provide, only the US can. India is no one's friend, only part

    • That's what they want you to think. Seems they already got to you

  • Excuses excuses (Score:4, Insightful)

    by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @10:49AM (#64372310)

    If a certain someone wins a squeaker again, it's gonna "the Chinese hacked the election!" for four straight years.

    Word of free advice: don't telegraph your intentions so brazenly. Propaganda and astroturf work best when the appear to be organic, not pre-announced.

    • That's all part of the plan. It will be a squeaker, so by telegraphing the intended disruption, they raise the FUD factor to ferment interest.

  • Microsoft (Score:5, Interesting)

    by RazorSharp ( 1418697 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @10:56AM (#64372342)

    This announcement seems to be just a PR piece for MS. Otherwise, it is just the sort of obvious speculation one would expect from an opinion piece.

    Here is what it really says:

    1. We are good guys protecting America! Microsoft will protect you.

    2. AI is dangerous and needs to be regulated so the barriers to enter the market are high and foreign companies cannot compete. All non-Microsoft AI should be illegal.

    3. Any information originating outside Microsoft should be distrusted.

    • Good insight.
    • I'm no fan of Microsoft, but that is not the content of the article. Do yourself a favor and read it.

      Here is one quote:

      Microsoft said in the report that China had already attempted an AI-generated disinformation campaign in the Taiwan presidential election in January.

      So how effective can AI be? Read this "AI’s Powers of Political Persuasion": https://hai.stanford.edu/news/... [stanford.edu]

      Across all three comparisons conducted, the AI-generated messages were “consistently persuasive to human readers.”

      EU is moving to regulations of AI systems intended for political campaigns. I hope the world follows.

      • I would argue that you have to tease out the message from the content. Press releases always have a strategy beyond the raw news they publish.

        Regarding the regulations, I fear whatever the EU will put forward. We have no idea how to regulate AI and any hasty action will likely do nothing but allow the tech giants to gain a stranglehold on AI going forward. There is reason the ones with the deepest pockets are clamoring for regulation. Regulation is costly and will elbow out startups and smaller competitors.

        • If that is the message in the article, it is your interpretation, but not the actual content. And sure, MS and others would like to make money of this, but AI influence on politics and other risks is a much more serious question.

          The EU regulations, expected in a month or two, will demand a ban on dangerous AI systems and have rules to manage risky usage. The regulations come from the democratically elected EU parliament not companies, and there will be an office in Brussels supervising the rules. Compani

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by PPH ( 736903 )

          Regarding the regulations, I fear whatever the EU will put forward.

          LLMs. Now with USB-C.

  • Can you imagine, in a time of catastrophic global warming, China is flooding the world with low priced solar panels and cheap Electric cars! the horror! https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/04... [cnn.com]
  • You mean like any other political ad or lobbyist.

  • Limited Thinking (Score:5, Insightful)

    by necro81 ( 917438 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @11:16AM (#64372396) Journal
    I expect most comments in this thread will be along the lines of "China will favor candidate X!" And then project their own political fears or hopes accordingly.

    I don't really know if China prefers Biden or Trump, and I doubt that it really matters. China's approach is likely to be more holistic than that: they can quite happily play all sides against one another. The American electorate is already primed for such games. Fear, uncertainty, doubt: these are desirable outcomes for their own sake, even if they don't determine the ultimate outcome. Anything that weakens U.S. cohesion or makes democracy look messy and unreliable is a tactical win for China, regardless of who's in Washington. And China's got plenty of company.

    And it is not just the top of the ticket, which requires a national influence campaign. China can make plenty of trouble in smaller down-ballot races at the state and local level. There are plenty of staunch China-hawks in Congress, for instance, some from states with fewer than one million voters.

    • Re:Limited Thinking (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Zontar_Thing_From_Ve ( 949321 ) on Friday April 05, 2024 @01:05PM (#64372772)

      I don't really know if China prefers Biden or Trump, and I doubt that it really matters.

      I really don't get how you can say that ant modded up to 5 points here, so let me help you. There are pros and cons to both from China's perspective, but they vastly prefer Trump. Here's why.

      1. Xi doesn't understand democratic societies, so he sometimes makes mistakes in dealing with them. He understands dictators. If Trump becomes president again, it's possible that there will never again be another presidential election in the USA. That is something Xi understands and can deal with.
      2. Despite some talk between them, Trump's relationship with Kim of North Korea was mostly stable, something that China will like.
      3. Trump is hugely isolationist so the US will back away from allied countries, which benefits China.
      4. Trump was desperate to get a trade deal, any kind of trade deal, from Xi 4 years ago and Xi mismanaged this. Trump will want some kind of bs trade deal that he can take to the US public and claim he "won" against China, even if it accomplishes nothing. "Do whatever you want to Taiwan" may be a price he is willing to pay to get even a bad trade deal. Trump might also signal China that in exchange for even a bad trade deal, they can send all the military hardware they want to Russia to end the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor. This will also be in China's benefit as it will solidify Putin and Putinism as a political method for Putin's eventual successor to follow. Xi understands Putinism.

      The only plus to a Biden presidency for China is that Biden won't attack China and while it's unlikely that Trump will, it's not impossible that Trump would completely flip out against China for who knows what reason.

  • same day voting, paper ballots and voter ID (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 05, 2024 @11:36AM (#64372466)

    watermarked ballots and all ballots hand counted. Other countries do it in a single day.

    Mail in voting is by exception only, must be received & counted before election day and each ballot needs a witness. Both provide image of ID.

    • Sure, if we can make sure on a country wide level (Also pretty almost all states are on a paper ballot type system today already)

      1. Early voting nationwide, everyone has a couple weeks to get their votes in if they have to do it by person. Stronger penalties for companies that do not give people reasonable time off to vote. This is how those other countries do it.

      2. Free proper ID's for all citizens if that is a requirement to vote. That means in person verification (someone goes to the citizen) for disa

    • Some very good ideas in there, with just one exception.

      - "Watermarked ballots": Already being done if using scantron ballots. In fact, scanner can be physically set to accept only special ballot paper.
      - "All ballots hand-counted": Terrible idea. Humans are lousy at counting repetitively. Scantron is thousands of times more accurate.
      - "Mail-in by exception only": Excellent idea. Even further, mail-in only if voter will not be physically present.
      - "Mail-in received and counted before election day": Yes, very

      • - "Mail-in by exception only": Excellent idea. Even further, mail-in only if voter will not be physically present. .

        How about making election day a federal holiday?

    • I urge you to volunteer to be an election judge. Your post leads me to believe that you don't really grasp the nuts and bolts of how elections are conducted.

  • Always nice when regime lackeys announce the false-flag ahead of time. Very kind.

  • These days you can't get very far trying to convince people to vote for your team. The sides are already locked in. You can get somewhere by asking people for specifics, such as when they say, "Candidate X is [some generally negative thing here]", you can just ask them to name one specific example of it, and they typically won't be able to. That's enough to make them stop and at least think.

    But flooding social media with AI generated crap? Yeah, good luck with that.

  • If I'm reading this correctly, they're saying "Beware of chinese memes". Seems dumb.

  • If they can somehow add a third option to the ticket then disrupt away China! The current candidates are absolute shit. I heard there is a teacher somewhere in the US who changed his name to "Literally Anybody Else". I hope he gets on the ticket so I can vote for Literally Anybody Else.

  • ... AI-made content was minor ...

    True: The US voters fuck-over their own country with Government makes me poor, rich people have more rights (punish the poor/non-white), Socialism is bad, exercising 'muh freedumbs' with a gun == patriotism. The 'small government' mechanisms and electoral college weighting in the USA means these fringe policies frequently decide elections.

    We've seen Trump collect these activists to his side but not in a coherent plan. The real danger is, a prepared revolutionary can piggy-back on his half-arsed popular

  • I guess Microsoft does use Windows to spy on us.

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