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DIY Polling Shows Bush, Kerry Will Win 112

Posted by michael
from the as-accurate-as-any-other dept.
cheese_wallet writes "7-eleven has a poll conducted by the choice of cup their customers pick for their coffee. They can pick a Kerry cup, a Bush cup, or a Third Party/No Opinion cup (interesting combo). Although it is considered completely unscientific, it polls millions of people and gets past the cell phone barrier. You can see the current stats." And reader Noryungi writes "This is very tongue-in-cheek... Harry's Bar, in Paris (France) has been conducting straw polls for the past 80 years, and has been wrong only once, in 1976. So... who is the winner, according to Harry's Bar poll, for the 2004 US election? Kerry. And not by small numbers either, Kerry wins 56% to 44% in the latest Straw Vote, which is a larger margin than all the other US-based pollsters."
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DIY Polling Shows Bush, Kerry Will Win

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  • What if you have a Bush (or Kerry) supporter decideds to swing the results (they would be pritty immature to do this) they could buy 20 or more cups of coffie a day, well the only justis is if they try to drink them all they might not live to see the elections
  • by stinerman (812158) <nathan.stine@NosPaM.gmail.com> on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:13PM (#10658705) Homepage
    Don't use these numbers to do anything important.

    Urban areas (where one would find more 7/11s) tend to go Democratic. Hence the inherent bias in the figures.
    • by fanboy19 (726017)
      Coffee drinkers, who actually buy their coffee from a store instead of getting the free stuff at work because it tastes better, tend to go Republican. Just a thought.
      • Hehe.

        I still maintain a Democratic bias because 7/11 coffee isn't exactly good. I mean, true patriots drink Folgers.
      • I guess that's yet another instance of me failing to fit into the typical left/right, liberal/conservative, red/blue stereotypes. Not only am I voting for John Kerry, I'll be spending Monday and Tuesday in Raleigh, NC helping with get out the vote efforts. Yet not only will I not buy my coffee from a convenience store if I can avoid it, I will go out of my way not to even drive past convenience store coffee.

        I pay $8.00/lb. for good quality coffee beans, and I grind two cups' worth at a time then brew each
        • Since your signature suggests to vote for Bush I'm going to assume your Republican, therefore making the trait of grinding coffee by hand a Republican trait.
          • And since you seem incapable of detecting sarcasm, I'm going to assume you're one of my ex-girlfriends.
            • Someone on /. had an ex-girlfriend? No, but seriously though, that last post was pretty funny. Hard to sense sarcasm from something that is written and not heard.
              • Someone on /. had an ex-girlfriend?

                Until recently I was something of a serial monogamist. I've since become more cynical; these days my idea of afterglow is "Okay, I'm done. Go home."

                No, but seriously though, that last post was pretty funny. Hard to sense sarcasm from something that is written and not heard.

                Thanks. But can you imagine a genuine Bush supporter saying the American way of life is vastly overrated? Sure, many of them may *feel* that way, but they tend not to actually give voice to the bel
      • But that assumes that Democrats in urban areas actually have jobs.

        Rob (Note to moderators: The above was a joke)
      • The coffee at 7-11 is better than the coffee where you work?

        You need a new job.
      • Unless you live on the West Coast, where good coffee and good beer go hand-in-hand with an enlightened viewpoint.

        We can leave Humbolt and Bellingham out of this discussion, I think...
    • Yeah, it's just a sales gimmick for 7/11 above all.

      ...and if the graphics on the linked page reflect the cups, there's a bias in the designs; the "Bush" cup is "louder" and more visually grabbing. Things that I'd think those wanting a cup of coffee would gravitate toward.

      I wonder what the Third Party/No Opinion cup looked like? Apparently invisible; they're not reflected in the posted result. Dribble cups?

    • I suspect that disproportionately, Democrats know how to brew their own (decent!) coffee. It reminds me of that famous Killdozer song lyric ("You call this cup of shit coffee?; I'd rather drink from the dick of a goat.")
    • But Bush is leading by 2% in the 7-11 polls...
  • Among those Americans who are online 44% support Bush and 39% support Kerry [itfacts.biz].
  • by christopherfinke (608750) <chris@efinke.com> on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:14PM (#10658713) Homepage Journal
    Kerry's polling well in France? You don't say!
  • The only poll that counts is the election-day poll anyway. Heaven forbid anyone actually do something with a poll.

    Of course, we all still like to see our favourite candidate winning even if, for non-Rep/non-Dem supporters, the definition of "winning" simply is "increased numbers", but, even then, the only results that matter, even for non-mainstream candidates, is that final election-day vote.

  • Meanwhile (Score:3, Funny)

    by Otter (3800) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:15PM (#10658723) Journal
    In other crucial election news, busts of Bush and Kerry carved out of hummus became the focus of a controversy when an unknown individual ate part of Kerry's head [kosherbachelor.com]. It's not known whether this action was politically motivated or if someone simply mistook Kerry for an hors d'oeuvre.
  • by SoCalChris (573049) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:17PM (#10658735) Journal
    The 7-11 by me only had Bush cups a few days ago.

    Either they were trying to swing the poll, or they had sold out of the Kerry cups.

    I'm guessing it's the latter, since I live in a fairly liberal area, and all of the local stop signs have been modified to read:

    "STOP
    BUSH"
  • C'mon, these polls don't mean a damn thing.

    We all know that the NFL [jsonline.com] really determines the outcome of the elections! And I gotta say, things are not looking up for King George at this point.

    • We all know that the NFL really determines the outcome of the elections! And I gotta say, things are not looking up for King George at this point.

      So, the Bush win _was_ legit, because the 'Skins lost.

  • high numbers (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Doc Ruby (173196) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:25PM (#10658802) Homepage Journal
    According to the coffee-poll site, Kerry + Bush (48.89 + 51.11%) = 100%, but they have 3rd option. No one chose it? Maybe I'm just bitter about corporate sponsored polls, but 7-11's poll seems pretty dicey.
  • Every morning before work (if I'm not running too terribly late) I ask myself who I plan to vote for.

    So far Kerry's numbers look very good, while Dubya appears likely to be filing for unemployment soon.

    Sure, the sample size leaves something to be desired, but I feel my methods are *at least* as accurate as polling drunk expats in Paris.
  • Electoral college (Score:4, Interesting)

    by moosesocks (264553) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:34PM (#10658871) Homepage
    Let's assume that the straw poll only takes into account the fact that a 56 - 44 popular vote could still result in a win for Bush in the electoral college.

    The 7/11 poll is disturbingly evenly split. The difference is so small that voting irregularities could easily constitute the margin.

    Also you have to take into consideration the fact that even if this survey was done on a large enough and evenly dispersed population to be accurate and that everyone voted truthfully, NOT EVERYONE WILL VOTE. Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.

    These three things alone will determine our election.
    • Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.

      All I know is that if Bush wins, I will be spending the next four years tracking down democratic voters who didn't vote and beating them savagely with a dead trout.

      Keep that in mind next Tuesday, punks.
    • 31 percent of "Democrats" - meaning folks that say they are a Democrat actually vote. The population of Democrats is 72 percent vs 28 percent Repulican.

      [1990 College Book as a reference so may be out of date]
    • Re:Electoral college (Score:3, Informative)

      by stinerman (812158)
      Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.

      I do know that there are, nationwide, more registered Democrats than Republicans (39% to 35%, IIRC). I also know that registered Democrats are more likely to cross party lines and vote for Republicans. For example, 11% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2000, while 8% of Republicans voted for Gore.

      Source [cnn.com]
    • Re:Electoral college (Score:2, Informative)

      by The Briguy (612887)

      Well there are two factors fighting against each other. Democrats are less likely to vote then republicans, but undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger.

      However everyone aknowledges that democratic turnout will be higher then usual this election. How much higher is up for debate. This is why polls are all over the place in terms of "likely voters" vs. "Registered Voters"
      • The likley voters has a republican skew though.

        They typically count likley voter as voted last election which skews republican, because they have historacaly voted more.

        high turn out usually equals win for democrats because they hold a slight lead in what the populus agrees with. But since voting is a right and not a requirement thousands of lazy people let the republicans win every year.

        (I read a poll last week that had kerry ahaid by 3 percent with all people polled, but behind 2 when likly voters wer
    • Off work ill and bored...

      Aside from 7-11's chart only showing 31 states and therefore being of less significance than it might appear (and also assuming their locations are evenly distributed and frequented - given then have Bush taking California I wouldn't bank on that), I've just been playing with electoral colleges with it.

      Bearing in mind my head's not quite straight at the moment so these numbers may not be quite right (like I may have moved a few states - sorry, Brit!) the thing that really bothers
    • you have to ask, is the customer base of 7/11 a fair representation of dems vs repubs or the makeup of the country? how does it being 7/11 skew it?

      i RARELY go into a 7/11 and it i can't think of a time when i bought a hot beverage there!

      on top of this, having 3 choices and only have 2 of them total 100% is symptomatic of a problem.
  • "Although billed as unabashedly unscientific and unofficial, we were surprised at just how accurate the 7-Election poll proved in the 2000 election."

    I wonder what exactly they mean by this. What exactly was there that was predictable about 2000? It seems they could claim 'accurate' results either way... if they showed Gore winning, they could claim to mirror the popular vote. If they showed Bush winning... they accurately predicted what? A supreme court decision? Hmm.. I coulda sworn I was going some
  • Harmful (Score:4, Funny)

    by Sponge Bath (413667) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @07:40PM (#10658915)

    These kind of unscientific polls are often misinterpreted by the masses and can demoralize potential voters. This is clearly biased against the most deserving candidate.

    Nader ALL THE WAY baby! YEAAAHHH!

    Man... that's good pot.

  • You may think it is a joke but consider this.

    It is the sugar, caffeine and alcohol addicted populace that really runs this country.

    So the main question is, who is more important, the drunks or the soda addicts?

    Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven.

    Heck, when it is this close you might as well be flipping a coin to predict what's going to happen.

    And are we still waiting for the October Suprise?
    Did I blink and miss it?
    • So the main question is, who is more important, the drunks or the soda addicts?

      Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven.


      So you're saying we should look at the other poll instead? Based on your logic, I'd like to point out a problem: not all drunks voting in US elections buy their drink in an american bar in Paris, France.
      • So you're saying we should look at the other poll instead? Based on your logic, I'd like to point out a problem: not all drunks voting in US elections buy their drink in an american bar in Paris, France.

        No, that's another flaw that I meant, but forgot, to point out.

        What I meant when I said.... "Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven." I meant are people that get their soda at Circle K different than people who go to 7-eleven, as well as other convenient stores, minima
  • Unfortunately ... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by BlueSteel (597448) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @08:02PM (#10659074)
    Unfortunately for Kerry, the children's Weekly Reader poll says otherwise [weeklyreader.com].

    Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history.

    ... I always knew I didn't like kids.
    • My conclusion: kids are stupid. What remains to be seen is whether the general populace is any more intelligent.

      Frankly, that's worrisome. The Weekly reader poll going to Bush last time was one of the reasons I bet on a Bush win. It does seem to be a pretty accurate barometer of public sentiment.

      Regardless of what happens, Kerry has run a lackluster campaign. If he wins, it will be because the Bush administration hasn't been able to cover all its errors. Selecting Bob Shrum was stupid. Sure, the guy has a

      • My conclusion: kids are stupid

        My conclusion: Kids vote for who their parents talk about voting for. That's why it's always been right.

        Kerry should have gotten those weasely-smart Clintonians to run everything.

        He did, but by then it was too late. He seems to have done the same thing Bob Dole did, which was just kinda hang out and say, "Hey, the President is a jerk and I'm not him. Vote for me." Dole didn't win. When Bush's numbers refused to go down, even after people like the NYT and CBS stopped
        • Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:4, Informative)

          by flyingsquid (813711) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @10:37PM (#10659844)
          Check your current events:

          "A videotape made by a television crew with American troops when they opened bunkers at a sprawling Iraqi munitions complex south of Baghdad shows a huge supply of explosives still there nine days after the fall of Saddam Hussein, apparently including some sealed earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency." -nytimes.com

          In other words, just what the Iraqis said. The explosives went missing after the 9th, after US troops arrived- the first US troops arrived at Al Qaqaa on the 3rd. The video- which shows boxes and barrels of high explosives in a sealed bunker- was taken on the 18th.

          Assuming (against all evidence) the expplosives really had gone missing earlier, it would be surprising if the Bush administration couldn't prove it: the reconnaissance should be good enough to pick up the 40 or so large trucks it would take to move a stash like that. It also ignores the fact that even if they had moved them, the Bush administration still should have secured those explosives wherever they ended up, and should not have stood by to let Iraqis loot weapons depots. The Bush administration's primary problem is that it simply denies reality and accountability. The sad thing is that so many Americans are perfectly happy with this situation.

        • Kerry started to panic and started launching random attacks at anything that moved, apparently using his wife and Edwards' wife to throw some more ad hominem slams into the fire, either that or those women are almost unprecendently petty and immature.

          I hope you're not suggesting that Bush & Cheny have been somehow above the frey.

          Ms. Cheney's going to go down in history for saying that referring to an outed lesbian as such on a question about homosexuality is a tawdry political trick.

          To say nothing o
          • I hope you're not suggesting that Bush & Cheny have been somehow above the frey.

            No, but Kerry really seems desperate to me. Not meant to be a partisan comment.


            Ms. Cheney's going to go down in history for saying that referring to an outed lesbian as such on a question about homosexuality is a tawdry political trick.


            It is, even a lot of Kerry supporters cringed at that one. And I'll tell you why I think so... for a reason no one seems to talk about.

            Kerry said "If you ask Mary Cheney... I'd thin
            • *sigh*

              The right-wing snapping (And they do have Fox News, the Post, et al; it's not as lopsided as they tell you it is) makes it impossible to have a reasonable discussion about Kerry.

              I cannot trust anything that they say about him, because how they report things I have seen is totally inconsistent with what he actually says. The best case in my mind is the "Global test."

              To paraphrase Kerry: "The president has moved unilaterally in the past, and there are times when that is called for and if President I
            • I'd say the real question is this: If Kerry wins the election, what's he going to do without Bush around for him to do the opposite of?
    • you're bound to find some amazing coincidences.

      Think of it another way. If you ask a million people if anything unusual happened today, one of them will tell you about an experience whose odds were a million to one.

      Sorry, Weekly Reader. If vote suppression tactics fail in Florida, Ohio, and elsewhere, you just might be wrong.
    • I find the repartition of the votes very interesting -- grossly, the difference between pro-Bush vs pro-Kerry votes shrinks as the voters get older... You can see in Kindergarten a clear majority for Bush, 70%/30%, and it goes down to 50/40 in 11th grade.

      I would tend to think that the more people become aware of life as it is, as they grow up to become adults, the more they are capable to *think* the world they're living in, the less they are inclined to vote for Bush...

  • by Dr. Spork (142693)
    We now clearly see that a tiny majority of the misguided people who are willing to pay money for the worst coffee in the world are Republican. Wow!

    Well, I suppose we also learn that some companies will take advantage of any situation in the effort to sell more product... and also, that Slashdot is happy to link to your promotional campaign for free if describe it right.

    • I actually like Bengal brand coffee found at the local Exxon gas station. The beans are ground up fresh before being used. And as long-time coffee drinker, I can't tell the difference between Bengal and Starbuck with the exception that Starbuck offers the extra flavors and shit including the stores ambience that jacks up the price.

      Why is it elitist snobs such as you look down on people that prefer a simple life? Some would argue that less is MORE in life. However, liberals look down on such philosophies wi
  • by felddy (202203)
    These numbers can't be correct by a long shot. I live near D.C. There is no way that Bush is leading 53.73% to 46.27%. An American Research Group poll conducted Sep-13 is showing:

    District of Columbia

    American Research Group (Sep-13)
    Kerry 78%
    Bush 11%
    Nader 6%

    7-11
    Kerry 46.27%
    Bush 53.73%
    Other 0%


    The lesson? Stick with what you do best 7-11. Selling hot 3-day-old rotating meat logs.
  • by xmas2003 (739875) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @09:01PM (#10659404) Homepage
    The halloween webcam [komar.org] allows you to vote by toggling the lights - current vote totals are:
    HULK: 9,684 BUSH: 9,472 KERRY: 8,937

    This is despite at least one "Kerry-Bot" that tried to stuff the ballot with hundreds of electronic votes [komar.org] (I guess it would be hard to stuff the 7/11 cup vote!) - needless to say, those votes were discounted and that IP address was banned.

  • by iamsure (66666) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @09:50PM (#10659651) Homepage
    With the Bush cups at the checkup line, I went looking for a Kerry cup. I was told it was "Back there".

    I walked through the cooler, into the storage shed in the back, crawled under the chicken wire enclosure, picked the lock on the cabinet door, opened the door, got the cup, took it back to the counter, and was told there was a $5 cooler tax.

    Damn battleground states.
  • So the dem-reps get another four years. Oh I'm shocked. I guess people are turned on by the prospect of having the world population locked up in terrorist-safe cages.
  • by Intocabile (532593) on Thursday October 28, 2004 @10:18PM (#10659767)
    According to 7-11, Bush cup supporters enjoy their coffee with plenty of rich cream and sugar, while Kerry cup supporters prefered they're coffee black or opted for a more international blend. With less the one percent of the cup vote third party cups remained unused, cup voters instead opted for their homemade organic root-marm. When asked about the poll Bush was quoted as saying, "Juan Valdez is a true patriot. Never forget 7-11... er I mean 911." The Kerry camp simply stated, "most young americans don't drink coffee, do you have any questions not related to coffee." Ralph Nader popular third party candidate had this to say. "Corporate America is pulling a fast one at the expense of the American consumer once again with cofee lids that could easily pop off scalding thousands, blinding hundreds."
  • by Anonymous Coward
    The 7-11 poll only shows the popular vote. It would be nice if they broke it down to show electoral college votes -- you know the ones that matter.

  • I live in Atlanta, GA and we don't have '7 eleven' stores. When I lived in Tallahassee, FL we didn't have them, either. For some reason 7eleven just isn't available around here. QuikTrip is our local 'convenience store' (and personally I prefer it to 7eleven [which are very prevalent in my hometown - Melbourne, FL]).

    Atlanta is a tiny little berg of only 7 Million people. When coupled with North Florida the total non-7eleven region is significantly more than 10 million people. Since the "electorally hi
  • This poll clearly shows the link between the attack of Sept. 11th and Iraq. The gasoline/petroleum oil used by 7eleven stores comes from Iraq. The name seven 11, clearly has an "eleven" in the title.

    "This makes it clear that there IS a connection between Sept. 11th and Iraq" -
    "My name is George W. Bush, and I approved this messidge."

  • All this poll proves is that kerry voters are far thristier than their Bush counterparts.
  • Harry's Bar, in Paris (France)

    Well of course John F'ing Kerry is going to win everytime in a poll conducted in FRANCE! The French like John Kerry. The French hate Bush. The French don't want to have their asses exposed in the U.N. oil for food scandal!

    • Well of course John F'ing Kerry is going to win everytime in a poll conducted in FRANCE! The French like John Kerry. The French hate Bush.

      *sigh* try reading the link.

      The poll is only open to US citizens, on production of their passport.

  • "The Washington Redskins have proved to be a time-tested election predictor. In the previous 15 elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power."

    More information here. [snopes.com]
    • "The Washington Redskins have proved to be a time-tested election predictor. In the previous 15 elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power."

      Does the quality of the teams (Packers 3-4, Redskins 2-4) usually mirror the quality of the candidates as much as it does this year?

What this country needs is a good five dollar plasma weapon.

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