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DIY Polling Shows Bush, Kerry Will Win 112
cheese_wallet writes "7-eleven has a poll conducted by the choice of cup their customers pick for their coffee. They can pick a Kerry cup, a Bush cup, or a Third Party/No Opinion cup (interesting combo). Although it is considered completely unscientific, it polls millions of people and gets past the cell phone barrier. You can see the current stats." And reader Noryungi writes "This is very tongue-in-cheek... Harry's Bar, in Paris (France) has been conducting straw polls for the past 80 years, and has been wrong only once, in 1976. So... who is the winner, according to Harry's Bar poll, for the 2004 US election? Kerry. And not by small numbers either, Kerry wins 56% to 44% in the latest Straw Vote, which is a larger margin than all the other US-based pollsters."
Point less. (Score:2)
Re:Point less. (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Point less. (Score:2)
Re:Point less. (Score:2)
I was particularly amused by his "spread sheet to compare 3 of the candidates, Michael Peroutka, GW Bush, and just to be fair John Kerry." at http://www.mikeoconnor.net/blog/?postid=181. Hmmmm.. I wond
Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:3, Funny)
Urban areas (where one would find more 7/11s) tend to go Democratic. Hence the inherent bias in the figures.
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
I still maintain a Democratic bias because 7/11 coffee isn't exactly good. I mean, true patriots drink Folgers.
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1)
Real humans buy fair trade coffee [transfairusa.org] .
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1)
I pay $8.00/lb. for good quality coffee beans, and I grind two cups' worth at a time then brew each
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:1)
Until recently I was something of a serial monogamist. I've since become more cynical; these days my idea of afterglow is "Okay, I'm done. Go home."
No, but seriously though, that last post was pretty funny. Hard to sense sarcasm from something that is written and not heard.
Thanks. But can you imagine a genuine Bush supporter saying the American way of life is vastly overrated? Sure, many of them may *feel* that way, but they tend not to actually give voice to the bel
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
Rob (Note to moderators: The above was a joke)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
You need a new job.
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
We can leave Humbolt and Bellingham out of this discussion, I think...
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
...and if the graphics on the linked page reflect the cups, there's a bias in the designs; the "Bush" cup is "louder" and more visually grabbing. Things that I'd think those wanting a cup of coffee would gravitate toward.
I wonder what the Third Party/No Opinion cup looked like? Apparently invisible; they're not reflected in the posted result. Dribble cups?
It was those damn butterfly cups! (Score:2)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
Re:Slashdot Poll Rules (Score:2)
Pew Internet did survey of online users (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Pew Internet did survey of online users (Score:2)
Re:Pew Internet did survey of online users (Score:1)
Among those Americas who are prepared to fill out an online survey.
Given that it generally seems to be the more tech-geeky places online (like here) where I see the most avid Democrats, its entirely possible we're seeing another bias here.
Kerry Wins in France (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:1)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:2)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:2)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:2)
I know it's not popular around here but if you checked the links you would have seen:
Voting began on Oct. 2 and was open to anyone with an American passport.
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:1, Redundant)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:2)
Yes, France is filled with people all trying to put out their little pet theories which ultimately tell you nothing except about their own idealistic positions. Just like every other country of people who have the time to do so. France isn't special, and neither is your country.
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:1)
Re:Kerry Wins in France (Score:2, Insightful)
the kind of person that would want to go to France and hear all the crap they are spouting over there
Phew, thanks you so much, i knew all these talks about disappearing mail ballots, vanishing iraki explosives, escaping the militry service but still being presented as an Ubber War Leader and all and all were nothing but. crap
Now i can safely crawl back to my home cinema room and forget about reality.
Useless... (Score:2)
The only poll that counts is the election-day poll anyway. Heaven forbid anyone actually do something with a poll.
Of course, we all still like to see our favourite candidate winning even if, for non-Rep/non-Dem supporters, the definition of "winning" simply is "increased numbers", but, even then, the only results that matter, even for non-mainstream candidates, is that final election-day vote.
Meanwhile (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Meanwhile (Score:2)
Re:Meanwhile (Score:2)
Polls biased (Score:5, Funny)
Either they were trying to swing the poll, or they had sold out of the Kerry cups.
I'm guessing it's the latter, since I live in a fairly liberal area, and all of the local stop signs have been modified to read:
"STOP
BUSH"
Pft, gimme a break. (Score:2)
We all know that the NFL [jsonline.com] really determines the outcome of the elections! And I gotta say, things are not looking up for King George at this point.
Re:Pft, gimme a break. (Score:1)
So, the Bush win _was_ legit, because the 'Skins lost.
high numbers (Score:5, Interesting)
Extensive polling in my household (Score:5, Funny)
So far Kerry's numbers look very good, while Dubya appears likely to be filing for unemployment soon.
Sure, the sample size leaves something to be desired, but I feel my methods are *at least* as accurate as polling drunk expats in Paris.
Re:Extensive polling in my household (Score:1)
Paris (France), please note. You forgot Pol.. I mean, France.
Electoral college (Score:4, Interesting)
The 7/11 poll is disturbingly evenly split. The difference is so small that voting irregularities could easily constitute the margin.
Also you have to take into consideration the fact that even if this survey was done on a large enough and evenly dispersed population to be accurate and that everyone voted truthfully, NOT EVERYONE WILL VOTE. Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.
These three things alone will determine our election.
Re:Electoral college (Score:4, Funny)
All I know is that if Bush wins, I will be spending the next four years tracking down democratic voters who didn't vote and beating them savagely with a dead trout.
Keep that in mind next Tuesday, punks.
Re:Electoral college (Score:2)
Something tells me it will take you longer than four years.
Re:Electoral college (Score:1)
Re:Electoral college (Score:1)
[1990 College Book as a reference so may be out of date]
Re:Electoral college (Score:3, Informative)
I do know that there are, nationwide, more registered Democrats than Republicans (39% to 35%, IIRC). I also know that registered Democrats are more likely to cross party lines and vote for Republicans. For example, 11% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2000, while 8% of Republicans voted for Gore.
Source [cnn.com]
Re:Electoral college (Score:2)
Re:Electoral college (Score:2)
I knew the state of elections in the US was in the toilet!
Re:Electoral college (Score:2, Informative)
Well there are two factors fighting against each other. Democrats are less likely to vote then republicans, but undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger.
However everyone aknowledges that democratic turnout will be higher then usual this election. How much higher is up for debate. This is why polls are all over the place in terms of "likely voters" vs. "Registered Voters"
Re:Electoral college (Score:1)
They typically count likley voter as voted last election which skews republican, because they have historacaly voted more.
high turn out usually equals win for democrats because they hold a slight lead in what the populus agrees with. But since voting is a right and not a requirement thousands of lazy people let the republicans win every year.
(I read a poll last week that had kerry ahaid by 3 percent with all people polled, but behind 2 when likly voters wer
Re:Electoral college (Score:2)
Aside from 7-11's chart only showing 31 states and therefore being of less significance than it might appear (and also assuming their locations are evenly distributed and frequented - given then have Bush taking California I wouldn't bank on that), I've just been playing with electoral colleges with it.
Bearing in mind my head's not quite straight at the moment so these numbers may not be quite right (like I may have moved a few states - sorry, Brit!) the thing that really bothers
Re:Electoral college (Score:1)
i RARELY go into a 7/11 and it i can't think of a time when i bought a hot beverage there!
on top of this, having 3 choices and only have 2 of them total 100% is symptomatic of a problem.
They predicted 2000??? (Score:2, Insightful)
I wonder what exactly they mean by this. What exactly was there that was predictable about 2000? It seems they could claim 'accurate' results either way... if they showed Gore winning, they could claim to mirror the popular vote. If they showed Bush winning... they accurately predicted what? A supreme court decision? Hmm.. I coulda sworn I was going some
Re:They predicted 2000??? (Score:2)
Harmful (Score:4, Funny)
These kind of unscientific polls are often misinterpreted by the masses and can demoralize potential voters. This is clearly biased against the most deserving candidate.
Nader ALL THE WAY baby! YEAAAHHH!
Man... that's good pot.
Re:Harmful (Score:1)
Man... that's a good pot of cofee.
Why these polls matter (Score:2)
It is the sugar, caffeine and alcohol addicted populace that really runs this country.
So the main question is, who is more important, the drunks or the soda addicts?
Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven.
Heck, when it is this close you might as well be flipping a coin to predict what's going to happen.
And are we still waiting for the October Suprise?
Did I blink and miss it?
Re:Why these polls matter (Score:2)
Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven.
So you're saying we should look at the other poll instead? Based on your logic, I'd like to point out a problem: not all drunks voting in US elections buy their drink in an american bar in Paris, France.
Whatever happened to privacy (Score:2)
No, that's another flaw that I meant, but forgot, to point out.
What I meant when I said.... "Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven." I meant are people that get their soda at Circle K different than people who go to 7-eleven, as well as other convenient stores, minima
Unfortunately ... (Score:4, Interesting)
Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history.
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:2)
Frankly, that's worrisome. The Weekly reader poll going to Bush last time was one of the reasons I bet on a Bush win. It does seem to be a pretty accurate barometer of public sentiment.
Regardless of what happens, Kerry has run a lackluster campaign. If he wins, it will be because the Bush administration hasn't been able to cover all its errors. Selecting Bob Shrum was stupid. Sure, the guy has a
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:2)
My conclusion: Kids vote for who their parents talk about voting for. That's why it's always been right.
Kerry should have gotten those weasely-smart Clintonians to run everything.
He did, but by then it was too late. He seems to have done the same thing Bob Dole did, which was just kinda hang out and say, "Hey, the President is a jerk and I'm not him. Vote for me." Dole didn't win. When Bush's numbers refused to go down, even after people like the NYT and CBS stopped
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:4, Informative)
"A videotape made by a television crew with American troops when they opened bunkers at a sprawling Iraqi munitions complex south of Baghdad shows a huge supply of explosives still there nine days after the fall of Saddam Hussein, apparently including some sealed earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency." -nytimes.com
In other words, just what the Iraqis said. The explosives went missing after the 9th, after US troops arrived- the first US troops arrived at Al Qaqaa on the 3rd. The video- which shows boxes and barrels of high explosives in a sealed bunker- was taken on the 18th.
Assuming (against all evidence) the expplosives really had gone missing earlier, it would be surprising if the Bush administration couldn't prove it: the reconnaissance should be good enough to pick up the 40 or so large trucks it would take to move a stash like that. It also ignores the fact that even if they had moved them, the Bush administration still should have secured those explosives wherever they ended up, and should not have stood by to let Iraqis loot weapons depots. The Bush administration's primary problem is that it simply denies reality and accountability. The sad thing is that so many Americans are perfectly happy with this situation.
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:2)
I hope you're not suggesting that Bush & Cheny have been somehow above the frey.
Ms. Cheney's going to go down in history for saying that referring to an outed lesbian as such on a question about homosexuality is a tawdry political trick.
To say nothing o
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:2)
No, but Kerry really seems desperate to me. Not meant to be a partisan comment.
Ms. Cheney's going to go down in history for saying that referring to an outed lesbian as such on a question about homosexuality is a tawdry political trick.
It is, even a lot of Kerry supporters cringed at that one. And I'll tell you why I think so... for a reason no one seems to talk about.
Kerry said "If you ask Mary Cheney... I'd thin
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:2)
The right-wing snapping (And they do have Fox News, the Post, et al; it's not as lopsided as they tell you it is) makes it impossible to have a reasonable discussion about Kerry.
I cannot trust anything that they say about him, because how they report things I have seen is totally inconsistent with what he actually says. The best case in my mind is the "Global test."
To paraphrase Kerry: "The president has moved unilaterally in the past, and there are times when that is called for and if President I
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:1)
If you hunt around long enough (Score:2)
Think of it another way. If you ask a million people if anything unusual happened today, one of them will tell you about an experience whose odds were a million to one.
Sorry, Weekly Reader. If vote suppression tactics fail in Florida, Ohio, and elsewhere, you just might be wrong.
Chalking things up to the statistical certainty of (Score:2)
All it means it that the kids polled in the Weekly Reader are a remarkably accurate indicator of public sentiment.
Re:Unfortunately ... (Score:1)
I find the repartition of the votes very interesting -- grossly, the difference between pro-Bush vs pro-Kerry votes shrinks as the voters get older... You can see in Kindergarten a clear majority for Bush, 70%/30%, and it goes down to 50/40 in 11th grade.
I would tend to think that the more people become aware of life as it is, as they grow up to become adults, the more they are capable to *think* the world they're living in, the less they are inclined to vote for Bush...
So what we learn is... (Score:2, Interesting)
Well, I suppose we also learn that some companies will take advantage of any situation in the effort to sell more product... and also, that Slashdot is happy to link to your promotional campaign for free if describe it right.
Re: (Score:2)
Not by a long shot... (Score:2, Interesting)
The lesson? Stick with what you do best 7-11. Selling hot 3-day-old rotating meat logs.
Re:Not by a long shot... (Score:1)
Kerry: 48.84%
Bush: 51.16%
Halloween Webcam shows Hulk, then Bush, then Kerry (Score:3, Informative)
HULK: 9,684 BUSH: 9,472 KERRY: 8,937
This is despite at least one "Kerry-Bot" that tried to stuff the ballot with hundreds of electronic votes [komar.org] (I guess it would be hard to stuff the 7/11 cup vote!) - needless to say, those votes were discounted and that IP address was banned.
7-11 locally not quite fair.. (Score:3, Funny)
I walked through the cooler, into the storage shed in the back, crawled under the chicken wire enclosure, picked the lock on the cabinet door, opened the door, got the cup, took it back to the counter, and was told there was a $5 cooler tax.
Damn battleground states.
ooh wow (Score:1)
Demographic breakdown (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Demographic breakdown (Score:4, Funny)
One problem with the 7-11 poll... (Score:1, Funny)
Unfortunately, GA and N. Florida doesn't have 7/11 (Score:2)
Atlanta is a tiny little berg of only 7 Million people. When coupled with North Florida the total non-7eleven region is significantly more than 10 million people. Since the "electorally hi
Re:Unfortunately, GA and N. Florida doesn't have 7 (Score:3, Interesting)
I guess I could understand if they only omitted Alaska(AK) and Hawaii(HI); however, they left out 38% of the United States! We have 50 states here!
The missing Iraq = Al Queda link... (Score:2)
"This makes it clear that there IS a connection between Sept. 11th and Iraq" -
"My name is George W. Bush, and I approved this messidge."
Worthless (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1, Troll)
Re:Well its the French, DUH! (Score:2)
*sigh* try reading the link.
The poll is only open to US citizens, on production of their passport.
Washing Redskins "Always" Predict Winner (Score:1)
More information here. [snopes.com]
Re:Washing Redskins "Always" Predict Winner (Score:2)
Does the quality of the teams (Packers 3-4, Redskins 2-4) usually mirror the quality of the candidates as much as it does this year?