Journal js7a's Journal: Recounting Ohio: a flip, but no flop! 2
A "Jim Crow" disenfranchisement analysis of the number of active voters based on historical turnouts compared to actual voters, in light of precinct voting machine allocation in Ohio, should lead to more than 130,000 additional votes for Kerry from discouraged voters in overloaded precincts statewide. Based on a rough extrapolation from the number of problems reported to VoteProtect.org, and the identified disparity in Franklin county (+1.9% for Kerry if the machines had been distributed based on active voters per precinct) then since there were five times as many problems reported in Cuyahoga County then we might predict +9% for Kerry in the Cuyahoga County vote, or 39,000 additional votes, and at least 22,000 in Deleware county, too. Extrapolating statewide, from Franklin County's results at the level of 9,971 votes per 246 incidents, we can predict 40.5 votes for each reported incident, or 137,500 more votes for Kerry.
The recount will include 93,000 "spoiled ballots" which have never been counted.
At present, Kerry is trailing by less than 119,000 votes, so he has won by more than 10,000.
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