How close were Presidential Elections?->
Submitted
by
Mike Sheppard
Mike Sheppard writes "I am a graduate student in Statistics at Michigan State University and spent some time analyzing past U.S. Presidential Elections to determine how close they truly were.
The mathematical procedures of Linear Programming and 0-1 Integer Programming were used to find the optimal solution to the question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?"
Because of the way the popular and electoral votes interact, the outcome of the analysis had some surprising and intriguing results. Presidential Elections are closer than people realize...
For example,
In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry
In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President Gore
In 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole
Even though the popular or electoral vote margin may have shown a decisive victory for one of the candidates there have been 12 U.S. Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different.
I thought you might like to see the results. It details the minimum number of votes needed to change the winning candidate in each presidential election.
https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html
Thank you,
-Mike Sheppard"
Link to Original Source
The mathematical procedures of Linear Programming and 0-1 Integer Programming were used to find the optimal solution to the question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?"
Because of the way the popular and electoral votes interact, the outcome of the analysis had some surprising and intriguing results. Presidential Elections are closer than people realize...
For example,
In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry
In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President Gore
In 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole
Even though the popular or electoral vote margin may have shown a decisive victory for one of the candidates there have been 12 U.S. Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different.
I thought you might like to see the results. It details the minimum number of votes needed to change the winning candidate in each presidential election.
https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html
Thank you,
-Mike Sheppard"
Link to Original Source
How close were Presidential Elections? More Login
How close were Presidential Elections?