kkleiner writes: "What do you think are the odds that you will die during the next year? Try to put a number to it — 1 in 100? 1 in 10,000? Whatever it is, it will be twice as large 8 years from now. This startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz in 1825 and is now called the “Gompertz Law of human mortality.” Your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years." Link to Original Source
I've never been canoeing before, but I imagine there must be just a few
simple heuristics you have to remember...
Yes, don't fall out, and don't hit rocks.