North Korea Kills Phone Line, 1953 Armistice; Kim Jong Un's Funds Found In China 330
eldavojohn writes "Last week, North Korea promised a "preemptive nuclear strike" prior to a UN vote on new sanctions. Despite the threat, the sanctions were unanimously approved. North Korea has responded by killing a Red Cross hotline with Seoul and claims that it has canceled the 1953 Armistice although the UN notes this cannot be done unilaterally (North Korea attempted the same thing in 2003 and 2009). While everyone thought that Kim Jong Un would ride out the sanctions on slush funds, the United States claims to have found his funds in Shanghai and other parts of China totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. Beijing has reportedly refused to confiscate these funds despite voting for the very UN resolutions sanctioning North Korea that read: 'More specifically, States are directed to prevent the provision of financial services or the transfer of any financial or other assets or resources, including 'bulk cash,' which might be used to evade the sanctions.'"
Re:China supports them.... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:China supports them.... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Stop it (Score:5, Interesting)
Comedy Theater trying to save face.... (Score:5, Interesting)
I see this type of stuff from NK as a face-saving measure, with more focus aimed at their own people.
The fact that the rest of the world pays attention is just icing on the cake.
Re:for the seventh time since 1993 (Score:5, Interesting)
The game theory here is very frustrating. Given the goals we want to achieve (nuclear disarmament) and the constraints we have (the North Korean people should suffer as little as possible) and the methods available (diplomatic attempts at disarmament, full embargo, all-out war, and brinksmanship) there's really no way to go forward and get what we want without either a lot of North or South Korean blood on our hands.
Then we have brinksmanship. Up until the 1990s our strategy was to attempt diplomatic disarmament, but during the 1990s that broke down pretty badly. Today we're playing a brinksmanship game while still attempting to send aid and trying to work on disarmament. This is just peachy for the NK top brass. They get to make any ridiculous proclamations they want, refuse to disarm, and get food aid anyway. Meanwhile, China is backing them in order to keep from dealing with refugees.
I can't see any way out. I'd be hopeful of revolution, which makes sense if it were a country with a Westernized culture, but the NK regime is too powerful, and the people are too uneducated and isolated to free themselves. It's a perfect storm, and any solution to the problem of NK is going to be VERY ugly to say the least. It won't have any net positive for many years, any way you try to slice up the situation.
Re:Ah diplomats (Score:3, Interesting)
I'm not all that convinced that North Korea can effectively invade South Korea. Do serious damage to Seoul, sure. But South Korea's active armed forces aren't that much smaller than North Korea (640k SK plus 29k USFK) versus 1,106k), South Korea's military is enormously better equipped (they have far greater force multiplication), is far healthier and better fed, and South Korea would enjoy total air superiority (North Korea's air force exists largely on paper). On top of that, South Korea could help on additional backup from the US (beyond USFK) as soon as the US could get it there, while North Korea would be entirely on their own. China is highly unlikely to fight their war for them this time (North Korea is sufficiently unimportant to China at this point that they wouldn't risk it). Even then, China only entered the Korean war in the first place because the US ignored Chinese warnings not to cross the 38th parallel as they were retaking the country (they didn't want a US-controlled country on their borders).
I think South Korea could pretty effectively repel any infantry assault. Heck, South Korea has bloody automated sentry turrets (made by Samsung) in the DMZ (or at least they deployed a trial run in 2010)... The bigger question is all that artillery pointed at Seoul. It makes me wonder if South Korea has anything up their sleeves like Iron Dome? Certainly South Korea expressed interest in purchasing Iron Dome units in 2011, and artillery shells are one of the things Iron Dome is intended to counter. The system only works against ballistic projectiles/rockets, but that's all the North has anyhow...
To put the relative disparity of the military resources in perspective, South Korea's military budget is about $30 billion USD. North Korea's is about $10 billion USD, and a pretty good chunk of that is probably going to their nuclear program (their rocket launches alone have cost them $1.3 billion)...
Re:for the seventh time since 1993 (Score:5, Interesting)
Your rationale is sound.
My alternative:
There might be the surprise olive branch, with China breathing down their necks. Then they could be Gadaffi'd out of business.
Or, nice palace military coup with a few years of malaise wouldn't be too rough, although crappy for the civilians. Then, a pseudo-democratic autocracy, followed by a more popular revolution when people actually get some food in their tummies.
Re:Oh? (Score:5, Interesting)
Here is my exact view: North Korea wants to be invaded, because of the spoils of war that the US will bring it. Imagine getting wiped off the globe by the US in a 3 day war, and then have the next 10 years of "Nation Building" infrastructure improvements that we've become accustomed to giving the vanquished foes. It is brilliant plan!
I do believe there was a movie with this same plot, though I don't recall the title off hand.
Re:for the seventh time since 1993 (Score:4, Interesting)
When the rules of the game prevent victory, youchange the rules.
In this case, you either give up on nuclear disarmament (personally I don't think nukes themselves are problematic, just the size and particularly number we have), or you give up on the North Korean people (personally I favor precision missile strikes against their leadership and military threats).
Or we find a new method - I would think negotiation would work better if we openly recognized that, without China propping them up, NK would have collapsed decades ago - so we need to figure out what China wants out of the deal. Simply put, they're worried about the big US army that's been stationed there, just as they were during the Korean War. So, oddly, negotiation could probably proceed without either of the Koreas at the table - just China and the US. Get the US to pull out the 8th Army in exchange for China dropping all support for NK, and we'd be getting somewhere. NK would then either quickly starve, or would start listening when we tell them to knock it off.
Re:for the seventh time since 1993 (Score:4, Interesting)
This sounds good, but that would be absolutely terrible for Japan. Remember, Japan isn't allowed a standing army or navy (officially). They do have the JSDF and the JMSDF, but both forces wouldn't be able to protect them in all out war, which is what their insecure about. Japan is a major trading partner, and they're going to throw a fit if we make them feel vulnerable. There's been a lot of saber rattling between Japan and China in the last few months over minor islands of little value. If we appear to be too chummy with China over diplomatic and military strategy, Japan's going to make a world of hurt for us since we're their ally in the saber rattling (unofficially)