Examining Presidential Candidates Via Google Trends

Michael Giuffrida writes "Google Trends is a free application produced by Google that shows how often a given keyword is searched for, over time. After seeing how candidates in the 2008 primaries have done in Google Trends in different states, it's clear that this tool can be very useful for campaigns." Read on below for some of the specifics about how these candidates have fared, Google-wise.

"For example, in New Hampshire, in the days leading up to the Jan. 8 primary, Clinton was searched for the most, followed by Obama, followed by Edwards — which was how the primary results turned out. In other words, the candidates most searched for on Google by users in New Hampshire were also the candidates with the most number of votes. This works for many other states as well.

For the first 37 Democratic primaries and caucuses, 32 states had enough data on Google to make a prediction. This method correctly predicted 27 of those 32 sates. Predictions aside, the tool is also useful simply in finding out how popular a candidate is in different states, assuming that the more popular candidates are entered more often as a search term in Google (an assumption that was verified, at least for the Democratic primaries, by the positive association found)."

Re:Not the whole story

[bwhaley]

It seems to me that using search terms as a basis for anything is inherently biased towards technically savvy citizens. We Slashdotters are far in the minority - most of the population still gets most of it's news from CNN and the morning paper. Especially the voting majority.

As an example, look at the Google Trends data with Ron Paul included [google.com]. Searches for Ron Paul were higher than for Obama in early January, yet he was never higher than 4th (3rd?) in the Republican caucuses/primaries. His popularity was on the Internet alone.

Re:Not the whole story

[witherstaff]

Paul got 2nd in NV, after Romney. The NV state GOP convention was recessed indefinitely after it looked like Paul would get a majority of delegates and has yet to be reconvened. There are 2 competing conventions [politickernv.com] planned to finish the selection. The established GOP doesn't seem to like Paul very much.

I find it amusing that as this year had such a huge turnout of primary voters it just made more problems for the 'old guard' in both camps. Maybe if even more Americans bothered with being involved we'd get something other than the continued Washington Payola cruft.

Re:27 out of 32

[mgiuffrida]

And now, what everyone's been wondering.. http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22john+mccain%22%2C+%22barak+obama%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 [google.com] four more years?

No, the problem is you spelled "barack" wrong. http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22john+mccain%22%2C+%22barack+obama%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 [google.com] change we can believe in?