Can Statistics Predict the Outcome of a War? 572
StatisticallyDeadGuy writes "A University of Georgia scientist has developed a statistical system that can, she claims, predict the outcome of wars with an accuracy of 80 percent. Her approach, applied retrospectively, says the US chance of victory in the first Gulf War was 93%, while the poor Soviets only had a 7% chance in Afghanistan (if only they'd known; failure maybe triggered the collapse of the USSR). As for the current Iraq conflict: the US started off with a 70% chance of a successful regime change, which was duly achieved — but extending the mission past this to support a weak government has dropped the probability of ultimate success to 26%. Full elaboration of the forecasting methodology is laid out in a new paper (subscription required — link goes to the abstract). Some details can be gleaned from her 2006 draft (PDF)."
Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)
Statistics, Schmatistics (Score:5, Funny)
Project Management (Score:5, Funny)
Nobody wrote up a scope change request, let alone getting it signed off...
Ha! (Score:2, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:1, Funny)
Bah! What is so bad about living in mines? With nuclear reactors and the appropriate male to female ratio we can reach our current Gross National Product in say 20 years. The only thing you need to worry about is whether your enemies have stashed a nuke in one of their mines to use on you when the world becomes habitable again.
Thermonuclear (Score:0, Funny)
Re:If i'm reading this correctly (Score:5, Funny)
It so happens, (Score:5, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:5, Funny)
A quick survey would have to be made of all the suitable minesites in the country, but I shouldn't be surprised if several hundred thousand of our people could be accomodated.
Every nation would undoubtedly follow suit.
Re:0% (Score:3, Funny)
Re:If i'm reading this correctly (Score:5, Funny)
But I like your way of thinking better...
Re:Future Wars (Score:5, Funny)
Can Statistics Predict the Outcome of a War? (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Statistics, Schmatistics (Score:5, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:5, Funny)
Of course I didn't come courting empty handed (Score:5, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:5, Funny)
I hasten to add that since each man will be required to perform prodigious service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics, which will have to be of a highly stimulating order.
Re:0% (Score:5, Funny)
Re:the mule (Score:2, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:2, Funny)
Re:0% (Score:2, Funny)
They are still trying to relearn Dentistry.
Re:0% (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Of course I didn't come courting empty handed (Score:3, Funny)
Dude! I would so hit that. And then argue that the current push to democratise the Middle East is naive and the US should avoid direct conflict but try to trigger a Sunni/Shiite split analogous to the Sino/Soviet one. And then hit that again. Fuck yeah.
Oh good lord, please tell me by "hit that" in this context you mean "punch repeatedly with my fist" and not that other thing. Yuck, the only analogous split I can think of is the one where her front teeth are supposed to be.