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Politics Government

Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry 111

Posted by pudge from the with-a-straight-face dept.
Zogby released a poll yesterday that showed the ill-counted mobile-phone-only voters heavily in favor of Kerry over Bush. It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect. Further, the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.
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Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry More

Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry

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  • I predict... (Score:2, Funny)

    by Otter ( 3800 )
    ...they'll have a low turnout rate anyway, since they're incapable of shutting the hell up long enough to vote.

    At least I hope so -- I don't want to be stuck in the booth deliberating about aldermen while some nitwit a foot away yammers about his sex life.

    • Re:I predict... (Score:2, Interesting)

      by stinerman ( 812158 )
      A low turnout ... but higher than usual, which could make a difference in a close race.

      In my experiences on campus [wright.edu], it seems to be popular to vote for Kerry. You know, all the cool people are doing it.

      Furthermore, it is considered cool if you are voting for Kerry even though you hate him due to the fact that Bush is so incredibly bad. Its like the popular thing to do is pretend Bush is the anti-christ and then vote for Kerry based on that alone.

      Yes, my generation is a bunch of sheep.

      • Re:I predict... (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Hard_Code ( 49548 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @02:09PM (#10688338)
        By that definition anything popular is wrong, so you have to do the _opposite_ just to make sure you don't inadvertently look like you are being trendy. Anti-trendy is the new trendy! Lots of people think murder is wrong. Such sheep! Why don't they think for themselves instead of "going with the herd"! It still seems anti-war and anti-president is sure UNtrendy from what I see. Face it, no matter who you vote for, there is going to be an idiot somewhere ALSO voting for that person. You have to vote on your own beliefs not how popular or unpopular the belief is.
        • You have to vote on your own beliefs not how popular or unpopular the belief is.

          I agree 100%. I wasn't trying to insinuate that all people who vote for Kerry, Bush, etc. are sheep (even though I did say "my generation is a bunch of sheep").

          I was just commenting on the fact that, in my experiences, many of my peers seem to want to vote for Kerry because its the "in" thing to do.

          I also know of a few friends who are voting for their candidate of choice for good, sound reasons.
      • isn't he?

      • Re:I predict... (Score:1, Flamebait)

        by Stevyn ( 691306 )
        You are exactly correct. People our age who are voting for Bush seemed to be informed of the issues while people voting for Kerry seem to be following this liberal bandwagon. I know this because when I hear other people discuss politics, Kerry supporters can't base anything they say up with facts. Bush supporters actually know what they're talking about.

        This is not a criticism on Kerry, just the young trendy ignorant tools voting for Kerry without having formed an opinion. I wouldn't mind people voting
        • Unfortunately, you were modded flamebait...

          I agree 100% ... and I'm a proud liberal. Personally, I do think Bush is an evil warmonger and the worst president in the history of the country, but I don't think Kerry is much better.

          I think this comes from our politics as of late. You are either "pro-Bush" or "anti-Bush". I don't know too many people who are "pro-Kerry".
          • Thanks for seeing my viewpoint. I wasn't trying to make it a "pro-anyone" comment. I was simply trying to show that so many people are voting for a candidate they don't even know just because they are pressured to by their peers and university professor.

            The reason this should concern liberal who truly believe in their cause is because the next election could sway to the republican's side for no reason. Say for example John Kerry is elected president tomorrow and does a horrible job. Some crazy right wi
    • Cell phone use is outlawed in Georgia Polling stations, for which I am very grateful. In line outside, on the other hand...
      • What are these lines I keep hearing about? I haven't had to wait in line since I moved to this county 7 years ago. Of course, we have no voting 'machines'. Here's your ballot and a marker, fill in the appropriate circle and run it through the scanner on your way out the door.... :-P Who knows, maybe it'll be standing room only tomorrow morning.
        • Wow. Where do you live? Here in suburban Atlanta, GA we waited in line almost two hours to vote for president back in 2000. Can't wait to see how it is tomorrow morning.

          • Wow. Where do you live? Here in suburban Atlanta, GA we waited in line almost two hours to vote for president back in 2000. Can't wait to see how it is tomorrow morning.

            Yeah I can't understand that. My Aunt in Florida said she had to wait in line for four hours. She also pointed out that it takes about ten minutes to vote in Florida because they tack so much stuff onto the ballot.

            In New York you are only allowed three minutes by law in the voting machine. We don't load our ballot down with initiative

            • In San Francisco, I have never seen a line. We have polling places every two blocks it seems. We have a huge number of California propositions and city propositions to vote for as well.

              I vote against all propositions on principle. I'm not a fan of direct democracy. I don't have the time or resources to do a short and long-term impact analyses of these laws.
            • Heh... Line was just under 2 hours for me this morning. My wife voted at 2:30 this afternoon, and it took her 20 minutes. The good news is that we didn't have a rush hour this morning because of the voting, so I got to work quickly. I heard about a lot of moveon.org in the news setting up at polling places and hectoring voters. We don't get that here, I think because we Georgians heavily armed and most moveon folks are gun control zombies.
    • ...they'll have a low turnout rate anyway, since they're incapable of shutting the hell up long enough to vote.

      I'd be happy if they'd shut the hell up long enough to drive :oP
  • ...how is this different from a ridiculous poll online that asks "who won the debate that ended 5 minutes ago" or the nickelodeon online web polls asking 12 year olds who they would vote for?
    I know I saw this on the dnc.org website once, was probably on the rnc site also, that told people to go out to as many online polls as possible to vote for Kerry. These online presidential polls are less reliable to the results from these [slashdot.org].
    • Easy. This poll makes Kerry look good so it is ok.

      Welcome to Slashdot 101.

    • Re:So..... (Score:3, Interesting)

      by MindStalker ( 22827 )
      Just a side not from that.
      Nickolodeans poll which has been running for 5 elections and always was right picked Kerry.
      While Scholastic which has been running a kids vote since 1940, has only been wrong twice (1948, and 1960) picked Bush. So ones going down. Lets see!
    • All polls have limited value sensing the future. Look at the 2000 election where the poll in Hawaii was tied just before the vote (like it is now) and Gore won by 18 points.

      For some reason we have a insatiable thirst for "information" -- in the form of polls. It has been pointed out that the run of the mill poll is only calling land line subscribers. Zogby made an attempt to put in a correction factor for this.

      I think its probably closer to "real" information that asking 12 year olds their opinion so

  • My poll. (Score:2, Troll)

    by E_elven ( 600520 )
    Does anyone here read Slashdot?

  • Parallels to previous elections (Score:3, Informative)

    by stinerman ( 812158 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @01:28PM (#10687614)
    This reminds me of when FDR won his first election. Traditional Democratic voters in the south did not have phones like the Republican base in the north (yes, it has switched over time).

    Therefore, the polls were biased for the Republican and was generally thought to be a close election. Of course, FDR won in a landslide.

  • So... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by wizbit ( 122290 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @01:29PM (#10687632)
    The big question, as always with this age group, is still turnout. Zogby predicts the group accounts for 12% or more(!) of the electorate, so they could play a huge factor in determining the election. And Zogby adds (which you conveniently left off) that there are zero undecideds. Suspect or not, Zogby declares that to mean "this group is definitely going to vote."

    Don't be so quick to discount this poll.
    • Agreed, there's definitely something to this. I'm going to vote for Kerry, and I just got a new cellphone this weekend!
      • FOX "News" has there own polling showing Kerry ahead 2-5 points on three separate criteria. If these guys can't spin Democracy down, who can?

        The only tin-foil hat way to look at this is that by falsly promoting a victory for the forces of Democracy an Humanity, FOX will promote an unwarranted calm and apathy in the turnout of voters who support Democracy - leaving the field to dupes of the Crypto-Facists.

        • Re:So... (Score:3, Funny)

          by E_elven ( 600520 )
          Also on FOX: "Nokia, Motorola And SonyEricsson Using Microwave Devices To Turn Patriotic Americans Into Kerry-Voting Zombies. Our Online Poll: Can A Company Be Terrorist?"
    • Considering that the under 30 age group has the worst turnout record this is probably meaningless.

      The only time there was a strong turnout of 18 - 25 year olds was the first time the 18's were allowed to vote. Since then they don't show up or even register.
      • Considering that the under 30 age group has the worst turnout record this is probably meaningless.

        Possibly. However, the Zogby poll also indicated 97.2% of the cell phone users polled planned to vote (2.3% planned not to, .5% uncertain). The claimed error margin for the poll is 1.2%.

        If accurate, either text messaging cell phone users are much more politically active than the average GenX slacker, or Bush has successfully and massively mobilized the youth vote for the first time since 1972. Of course, he

  • In other news (Score:2, Interesting)

    by MarkPNeyer ( 729607 )

    It was confirmed that half of all americans earn less than the median income...



    Seriously, how is this news? Even rigorously scientific polls are highly suspect, so how does a nonscientific poll merit anything other than an nod?

    • Opt-in nonscientific polls can tell you a lot, but not about the election itself- they're good at telling you something about the people opting in. Recent polls indicate Slashdot in general leans very very far towards Kerry.
      • Or that Slashdot Kerry voters are more likely to comment. Or that the poll is worded to make Kerry look better (i.e. Are you for Kerry or against Bush).

        I think we will all have to wait till the election is over before we know what the results are. Polls are simply educated guesses.
  • Well, only those mobile-only users dumb enough to let their phone numbers get listed.
  • Are people actually trusting this? People registered on a site run by one party to a survey. I WONDER which party is more likely to register there? Seriously, if a republican site were to do this, everyone would be screaming like crazy. Adding to that, turnout is usually very low in this group of voters, so I really don't see the importance.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • sorry, thats not generalizing -- thats blatently exposing your prejudices.

      • Re:Wow (Score:1, Offtopic)

        by minus_273 ( 174041 )
        "There are probably more Democrats than Republicans involved with that site, but only because, as a rule, Democrats seem to be more interested in encouraging people to learn about their choices and vote, Republicans - again, I'm generalizing - count among them more people who'd rather the great unwashed stay indoors"

        you mean how democrats supported slavery? I think your generalization of the parties is rather biased.

      • Re:Wow (Score:2)

        by pudge ( 3605 ) *
        Rock the Vote is nonpartisan like Fox News is. Please.

    • Re:Wow (Score:1, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Zogby is a little more sophisticated in his reasoning than what is presented. He is simply pointing out that there is a huge portion of this years electorate that is essentially unmeasured and unmeasurable by design. That demographically, they'd favor democrats. And that for all the talk of undecideds, they don't really exist, they just resist commiting to an answer for a pollster, and have ALWAYS broken in favor of the challenger, AGAINST the incumbant. In a race where it's known to be very close other
  • The bigger question (and I don't know the answer) is how does the wireless-only demographic compare with similar demographic that is polled ... namely the young voter. Assuming that most of these (wireless) voters are younger... how do they compare with the non-wireless younger voters (who were reached in the polls)? My hunch is that there is significant overlap between them; thus wireless attitudes are implicitly contained within the poll results and there will not be a signficant difference come tomorro
  • It seems that this poll wouldn't have to be COMPLETELY useless. If you compared the number of people who signed up for this poll to the total number of people who exclusively own cell phones, then you can get an idea of how many people are decided and feel strongly enough to sign up for such a poll. Of course I'm quite sure that this wasn't a consideration during the poll, and was more of a way to say "look, look at all these people who prefer $candidate, you should prefer $candidate as well!".

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @01:46PM (#10687921)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The CEO notwithstanding, Rock the Vote leans left on every single issue (just look at their issues pages), and their executive director is a former Democratic party operative. They've ALWAYS been a pro-Democrat group.

      And as to the draft, how do you figure that is nonpartisan? They are trying to make people think the draft is a possibility, which is entirely false, and the ad is clearly aimed at hurting Bush.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
        Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • Try as I might, I can't find one

          I looked recently, and found them to be in favor of federal handouts for education, for free health care, anti-war, pro-choice, anti-ANWR. Just go down the list, they support every Democratic position on every major issue.

          Given the site is aimed at encouraging the participation of the young in elections, it strikes me that the draft is a pretty good way of getting their attention.

          Yes, a good dishonest way, that the Democrats are using to make people vote for Kerry.

          Is

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
            Comment removed based on user account deletion
            • That's right, because Kerry's against the draft whereas Bush is... hold on?

              I know they are both against it. But Kerry actually says a draft is likely under Bush.

              Great. So it's now a self defining argument.

              No. You asked a question, I answered it.

              The primary reasons I gave for why RTV is a Democratic party operation is its politics, its anti-Bush activities, and the history of the person who runs it. Because it is a Democratic party operation, I therefore still define her as a Democratic operative.
              • Comment removed based on user account deletion
                • And?

                  Clearly, the Democrats have been the only ones using the draft as an issue to this point. We know that RTV is run by a (at least former) Democratic operative. We kow that RTV takes the Democratic position on most issues. And you think they are being nonpartisan about the draft ... that just lacks credibility.

                  You responded by using your circular argument.

                  You're using a circular argument in (falsely) claiming I was using a circular argument.

                  The group appears to have very few policies other than
        • When I look at their site, it looks almost painfully balanced. Look at their 'find your candidate' page. For each topic, they have one site at each extreme.
          -----
          Want to know more about the issues before you try Find Your Candidate? Check out these informational links on hot campaign issues first:

          The U.S. in Iraq
          Cost of War
          U.S. Department of Defense

          Same-Sex Marriage
          American Family Association
          GLAD

          Tax Cuts
          Citizens for Tax Justice
          The Heritage Foundation

          The Environment
          Environmental Protection Agency
          Earth Jus
    • Or is this just a "Republicans would never encourage people to vote, therefore it's those lousy Democrats that are behind it" thing?

      I don't think any serious republican wants to discourage people to vote.

      That being said, I don't think anyone SHOULD vote if they are not informed. And if their sole source of information is MTV or Fox News or CNN or CBS or NBC or ABC or any newspaper or /., then I think they ought to stay home on election day. Voters should be informed on the issues and the candidates.

      • Re:Run by democrats? (Score:1, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        "I don't think any serious republican wants to discourage people to vote."

        There are a lot of Republicans in Ohio specifically trying to discourage people from voting:

        Source CNN [cnn.com]
        • There are a lot of Republicans in Ohio specifically trying to discourage people from voting:

          I am sorry. I guess I should rephrase my statement.

          There are not any serious republicans trying to discourage ELIGIBLE people from voting. Keeping felons, illegal aliens, non-citizens, dead people, double voters, Mary Poppins, and the Easter Bunny from voting is a civic responsibility. Do you want your vote cancelled by somebody who by law is not allowed to vote?

  • Huh, syntax error (Score:4, Funny)

    by schmaltz ( 70977 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @01:48PM (#10687961)
    ...the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.

    That assertion has no legs. Saying that because set A responds in a way that is similar to set B's response, they are essentially the same and A can be excluded if B is? That's just wrong. For one, the questions used to obtain the responses of the two groups, coming from different polling orgs, will very likely not be the same, which obliterates the base of your assertion.

    And, man, "if the results are to be trusted" - that *pegged* the needle on my Strauss-o-meter.

  • Ok, so we have (Score:5, Interesting)

    by revscat ( 35618 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @01:48PM (#10687962) Journal
    1. Boston Red Sox win the World Series
    2. Washington Redskins lose
    3. Cell-only people are swinging to Kerry
    4. Voter registration is way, way up
    5. The Economist endorses Kerry, as do most American newspapers (including many which endorsed Bush in 2000)
    6. More Republicans are endorsing Kerry (Eisenhower, son of the President; Milliken, guv of MI, Cook, Sen-KY, etc.) than Bush (Miller, Sen-GA)
    7. GOP vote blocking efforts are being shut down [jerryforohio.com] by those damn "activist judges"
    8. John Stewart's book is #1 on the bestseller lists

    Yup, things are looking good for the good guys.

    • You forgot the straws! The straws and the cups [slashdot.org], oh my!! There's no stopping Kerry now!

      !

  • Text messages (Score:4, Funny)

    by MillionthMonkey ( 240664 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @02:07PM (#10688305)
    Is this why I keep getting text messages warning me that if I went over my minutes I'll get arrested at the polls on November 4?

  • Great work /. editors (Score:3, Interesting)

    by aztektum ( 170569 ) on Monday November 01, 2004 @02:12PM (#10688398)
    I see you're just posting user comments as front page now [slashdot.org]
  • I wouldn't post such results. Proving that the an overwheliming majority of people dumb enough to give out their cell phone numbers are Dems really is not a horribly encouarging sign. Of course, you have to wonder about the Republicans that willingly gave up their cell phone numbers to a Democrat orginization. Isn't that a sign of greater stupidity?

    So... maybe we can take the lesson from this that people are people, and people are stupid.
  • While the poll (if the results are to be believed) indicates a high preference in this popoulation for Kerry, how do we know that this is who the cell-phone crowd will vote for? I think this popoulation, which is clearly more tech-savvy than the average american, might also be more informed about the issues. And if that is the case, you may see a LARGE chunk of this population voting Libertarian or Green. I think it is unfortunate that these polls have biased themselves by saying "Who would you vote for -
  • Could someone explain to me why the majority of visitors to a Democrat-affiliated site think that Kerry is better than Bush?
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Wake up and smell the napalm my friend. Here is a very short list of Bush's accomplishments:
      • Starting a war under false/erroneous pretense
      • Ignoring military recomendation to have 400,000 boots on the ground to occupy
      • Miscalculating (boy it this an understatement) how the occupied Iraqies will react to our invastion
      • Ignoring calls to have a terrorism on the front burner when he came to office
      • Making bellicose threats against Osama and not being able to deliver
      • no bid contracts
      • Karl Rove
      • Not being able to co
  • To any poller. when I am at home (rarely) and I get a call on the land line (only have it since Verizon does not have naked DSL, I wish they would offer naked DSL) and get a call from a political person (I don't get any calls normally so any call it political in nature now) I first let the answering machine get it then I pick up the phone and put the mouth peace up to the speaker of the answering machine. I don't care who it is that is calling if you are calling for political stuff, you will get the feed
  • "It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect.

    The definition of a poll involves the random sampling of a population. To me, this poll is in violation of the most fundamental rule of polling, randomness, and therefore isn't suspect but pretty much worthless.

    Having said that, I probably don't need a poll to tell me this. Would anyone agree with the basic assumption that cell-phone only users ar
  • PUDGE JE: Please Do Not Vote [slashdot.org]

    Remember, this is one slashdot editor that supports Democracy!

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