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Doomsday Clock To Advance

Posted by kdawson on Sat Jan 13, 2007 05:36 PM
from the fire-next-time dept.
Dik Zak writes "Many news sites are reporting that the magazine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists intends to move the hands of the Doomsday Clock on Wednesday 17 January. The clock was started at seven minutes to midnight during the Cold War and has been moved forward or back at intervals, depending on the state of the world and the prospects for nuclear war. Midnight represents destruction by nuclear war. It is not revealed in which direction the hands of the clock will be moved, but it should be safe to assume that they will move closer to midnight: the magazine cites 'worsening nuclear [and] climate threats.' The clock stood at two minutes to midnight when both the United States and the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons in 1953. The farthest away from midnight it ever got was 17 minutes, in 1991 when both superpowers signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. It currently stands at seven minutes to midnight."
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  • Midnight? (Score:5, Funny)

    by It doesn't come easy (695416) * on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:40PM (#17596138) Journal
    So, is that Eastern Standard Time?
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      In Soviet Russia, doomsday clock advances you! (Sorry, but I just had to say that.)
      • by benhocking (724439) <benjaminhockingNO@SPAMyahoo.com> on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:59PM (#17596404) Homepage Journal
        That means those of us on Eastern Standard Time have already experienced Doomsday. (Psst, Central folk, his name is..., nah, let them experience it, too.)
        • PST (Score:5, Funny)

          by Ikcor (676683) on Saturday January 13 2007, @09:53PM (#17598620)
          Damn, that means Doomsday will be tape-delayed on the west coast.
        • Actually we are getting dangerously close to a nuclear war. The US now has TWO Carrier Strike Groups in the Persian Gulf. The Gulf is getting so crowded that a US sub bumped into a Japanese tanker. Ted Koppel on NPR Friday evening said that people in the military have indicated that our assets in the Gulf are not useful for combating the insurgency in Iraq but are well suited for strikes on Iran. Koppel said that senior military personnel have told him that it is likely that the US will be at war with I
          • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

            You mean they are a bunch of Newfies?
            (For those who don't know Newfoundland is in a half hour timezone and on Canadian TV shows are always advertized as starting 1/2 hour later in Newfoundland. And of course the Newfies are just weird so are the butt of many a joke)
  • Arbitrary? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Rhesusmonkey (1028378) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:41PM (#17596152) Homepage
    Is there some equation by which this is determined or is this another abstact measure of FUD that we could just as easily set to "Red" as 7 till midnight?
    • by GuyMannDude (574364) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:56PM (#17596362) Journal

      I doubt there is an equation involved. But I think one look at today's front page of slashdot justifies moving the hands a little closer to midnight:

      • A schoolteacher could get 40 years because her antivirus software subscription ran out.
      • A schoolboard rules that global warming is a "mere" scientific theory.
      • The US continues to use some idiot system of measurement based on some dead dude's foot.
      • The next Star Trek film is about Kirk and Spock -- The Early Years.
      • Shatner was allowed to break the news.

      If these aren't a sure sign of the apocalypse (especially the last item), I don't know what is.

      GMD

      • Re:Arbitrary? (Score:4, Informative)

        by WED Fan (911325) <akahige&trashmail,net> on Saturday January 13 2007, @06:44PM (#17596938) Homepage Journal

        A schoolboard rules that global warming is a "mere" scientific theory.

        Actually, I live in the Seattle area:

        What they ruled on was that it was a scientific theory with more than one side to the story and that "An Inconvenient Truth" was not a dispassionate, non-partisan, objective look at the science involved. They were also concerned that none of the producers and Al Gore were scientists, and that showing it in a class without context would be a disservice to students.

        It was widely misreported, probably helped by the fact that the most vocal opponent to the film being shown is a nut-job zealot parent, and the fact that Seattle PeePee, uh, P-I ran an editorial as news and the fact that local right-wing radio really went ape-shit. But, that doesn't mean we have to get the reporting wrong here. Wait, this is /., I'm sorry, go about your business.

        • Re:Arbitrary? (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Eivind (15695) <eivindorama@gmail.com> on Sunday January 14 2007, @05:47AM (#17601242) Homepage
          You are absolutely correct.

          The *length* of the meter is arbitrary. Same for the length of the second and most other basic units in the metric system.

          What is, however, *not* arbitrary, and where the large win lies is in making the derived units straigthforward combinations of the basic units, and the different scale units factors of 10^x larger/smaller.

          There's an exception for time. The larger units of time aren't 10^x larger than the smallest one. 60,60,24,7,365.24 is a mess. The latter can't be helped: There really *are* 365.24 (or thereabouts) days in a year. But we could've split the day a lot more sensibly than 24/60/60. For example we could have 10 seconds to the minute, 10 minutes to the hour, 10 hours to the day. That'd be kinda disruptive, but it would simplify some stuff further. So, a foot makes exactly as much sense as a basic unit of length as a meter. Agreed.

          However, once we've set the basic units, the connections are extremely straigthforward:

          If I travel 1 meter in 1 second I travel at 1m/s, if I used a second to get to this speed I accelerated at 1m/s^2. If I weigh 1kg, then this required a force of 1N. If this force 1N work over a distance of 1m, it does 1J of work. If that was done in 1s then the power was 1W. If this was provided by electricity, then that is for example 1V and 1A. 1A means 1C electrons pro 1s flows trough the conductor. Now you do that, using only imperial units. :-) How many hogheads *are* there to a fluid-oz anyway ?

          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            If I travel 1 meter in 1 second I travel at 1m/s, if I used a second to get to this speed I accelerated at 1m/s^2. If I weigh 1kg, then this required a force of 1N. If this force 1N work over a distance of 1m, it does 1J of work. If that was done in 1s then the power was 1W. If this was provided by electricity, then that is for example 1V and 1A. 1A means 1C electrons pro 1s flows trough the conductor. Now you do that, using only imperial units. :-) How many hogheads *are* there to a fluid-oz anyway ?

            If I travel 1 foot in 1 second I travel at 1 foot/s, if I used a second to get to this speed I accelerated at 1 foot/s^2. If I weigh 1lb, then this required a force of 1 pound-force. If this force 1lbf works over a distance of 1', it does one foot-pound force (ftlbf) of work. If that was done in 1s then the power was 1 ftlbfs^-1.

            I can't do any more from memory - we only used metric terms when discussing electricity, whereas we used imperial and metric with anything else, but I'm sure they exist. My point

              • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

                It was intended to be, but as the job of working it out the distance was done by the French, it got cocked up, and by the time anyone realised, it was too late, so now, a Metre is the length of a stick of platinum in France (blah blah atomic clock speed of light, yea whatever, it's the fucking stick just accept it).

                Same thing happened with the kilogram.

  • Hyperbole? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Gothmolly (148874) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:43PM (#17596186)
    So you have 12 hours to work with, and you start off at 17 minutes to midnight? Seems like a case of hyperbole to me - in that scale, the world is ALWAYS about to blow up in a nuclear war, so it quickly loses its impact.

    It's like holding the stupid "threat level" at yellow or orange for a long amount of time, eventually people accept it and begin to ignore it.
    • It's a metaphore to illustrate the danger posed by nuclear weapons. It is not supposed to be a "threat level"-o-meter, but basically an indicator of what changes are worth, that we're never gotten further than 17 minutes on the scale of 12 hours of shades of nuclear weapon danger since the clock was built.

      It's kind of like illustrating the age of the planet as 12 hours and the appearence of humanity and civilization as the last minute/second whatever...
      • Re:Hyperbole? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by The One and Only (691315) <phil@philwelch.net> on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:58PM (#17596400) Homepage
        It's kind of like illustrating the age of the planet as 12 hours and the appearence of humanity and civilization as the last minute/second whatever...

        Except without any basis in mathematical fact or measured reality.

        • Re:Hyperbole? (Score:4, Insightful)

          by A beautiful mind (821714) on Saturday January 13 2007, @06:10PM (#17596510)
          Please note, that I used the word metaphore. In this, the clock is similar to a work of art, it has meaning. It calls attention to an important issue by using a metaphore and you're asking where is the mathematical fact or measured reality in it?

          The problem it points to does have mathematical facts and is consistent with reality aka it exists. It is a mathematical facts that governments around the world have enough nukes that it can display all civilisation on earth and potentially wipe out the human race. It is a mathematical fact that more and more governments are capable of using nuclear weapons. It is part of reality that those who aquired nukes recently are not the sanest people around, like Kim Il - if we can believe the reports about the test they carried out which I'm not sure I do.
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            Please note, that I used the word metaphore. In this, the clock is similar to a work of art, it has meaning.
            It might be metaphor, but since it's scientists setting the time on a clock without any mathematical basis, it also counts as hyperbole, FUD, and propaganda. They are using the trappings of science to make hay out of their personal political beliefs.
    • Re:Hyperbole? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by gsn (989808) on Saturday January 13 2007, @09:04PM (#17598222)
      That most people live their daily lives blissfully ignorant of the dangers of nuclear weapons is entirely irrelevant. I don't think most people have a sense of scale for what a nuclear weapon can do. Therefore, the risk of a nuclear war is meaningless to them. Worse, I've heard and met some people who believe it won't be any worse than a conventional war, and are quite happy saying nuke Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and while you are at it, N. Korea. Sure most people ignore risks and only react after something happens. The trouble with a doomsday scale nuclear war is there isn't an after. Perhaps if you kept that in mind it wouldn't lose so much of its impact.

       
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          Yes. Always the same shit from the environmentalists - "humans going to blow up the planet". Greenpeace actually said, in one of their 90s pamphlets "humans about to destroy all life on earth"... Idiots. We may be able to take care of small flightless birds, we may be pretty good at wiping out most of the fish stocks, but humans could never destroy life on earth.

          It's kind of instructive to think what we would have to do - start with the hard to reach - we need to kill all the life around the "smokers" at t

            • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

              it's safe to say that when environmentalists say we are going to end the planet they mean it in the context of humankind.

              Environmentalists are not and never have been interested in helping mankind. They are simply an alliance between the ivory-tower preservationists and the Gaia-theory radicals who would frankly prefer that the earth swallow up all the filthy parasite humans (except them and their nature-worshipping friends, of course) and spit out the bones.

              Conservationists are the ones who are truly

        • At least one person agrees with you:


          Things which will NOT destroy the Earth: ....
          * Detonating all the nuclear weapons ever created simultaneously, either all at one location or strategically placed around the globe. This will irradiate pretty much the entire globe and kill an awful lot of people, animals and plants, but will actually destroy very little of the planet itself.

          How to Destroy the Earth [qntm.org]
        • Sure, if you just drop bombs randomly, we probably couldn't blow up the planet. Give them to me and I'm sure I could split this sucker in half. Am I restricted just to using them on Earth or can I use them in space too?
  • by A beautiful mind (821714) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:44PM (#17596202)
    Jack Bauer will disarm the russian ICBM 10^-23 second before it detonates, so we haven't got anything to worry about!
  • by 10100111001 (931992) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:45PM (#17596224)
    I'm sick of waiting for the return of my deity.
  • Preemption (Score:5, Funny)

    by ewg (158266) * on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:53PM (#17596328)
    Some superpower or another needs to preemptively attack and destroy this doomsday clock before it hurts someone.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:55PM (#17596348)
    Suddenly I realize where the song title comes from.
  • DST? (Score:3, Funny)

    by aztec rain god (827341) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:58PM (#17596390)
    Wouldn't this be a good reason to get rid of daylight savings time?
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:58PM (#17596394)
    new pressure from climate change for expanded civilian nuclear power that could increase proliferation risks.

    These guys are not claiming doomsday from climate change.

    And despite the increase of proliferation and individual threats, the global doomsday we legitimately feared in the 80's is long gone.

    I think proliferation in the Middle East will bring some long needed maturity to those ridiculous tribal governments or be self-limiting. Bad for some cities, but not global conflict. India-Pakistan nukes may have even calmed that situation. Mutual destruction pacts might actually work.

    • Mutually Assured Destruction works if both people in control of the Big Red Button are semi-sane, understand the consequences of pushing that button and are interested in self-preservation, or at least the preservation of a good chunk of their people.

      However, I can say without a doubt that there are plenty of people who do not have any of these characteristics, including Americans. MAD is far too unstable a concept to be institutionalized. I'd much rather have no nukes than be the only one to have them. It
        • by NeutronCowboy (896098) on Saturday January 13 2007, @09:03PM (#17598218)
          Mmhh.... let me rephrase that for clarity.

          However, I can say without a doubt that there are plenty of people who do not have any of these characteristics, including many Americans.

          There, better.

          Yes, Kennedy and Khrushchev did very well not to go down the hardline path. But we won't get lucky every time.
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            I suppose one president is luck; but nine presidents is a pattern. We had national leaders that ranged from right-wing TFH's to bleeding heart liberals, and nine out of nine presidents (including Reagan, ridiculed in his own time for being a nuke-loving war-monger ["Land of Confusion", I loved that video]) did not press the button. Ditto for the Soviet Union. I don't believe the relative calm of the Cold War was a fluke; MAD was a diplomatic strategy designed to give us an excuse not to go to war in circums
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        Take a look at Pol Pot in Vietnam. He had full control over the lives of many of the citizens of Vietnam and yet he killed millions of them.

        I think the Cambodians would be very surprised to learn that Pol Pot killed a bunch of Vietnamese too.

        Seriously, if you're going to use historical analogies to bolster your arguments, you should at least try to get the elementary facts right.
  • by Sargeant Slaughter (678631) on Saturday January 13 2007, @05:59PM (#17596408) Homepage
    I was listening to an interesting radio show out here in San Diego yesterday (The Dangerous Dick and Scibba show) and they were talking about the 20K troop increase as a way to get ready to go into Iran (a nuclear power). People were guessing that Bush/Cheney/and company want to try and neutralize the Iranian threat before leaving office. Me thinks this might be related...
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      Dangerous Dick indeed, as he has very little brain...20K troops isn't enought to do anything, it's really just more to stablize the Baghdad area and maybe do some border patrol. Plus it is mostly reservists and National Guard which are NOT the top troops to use in any "invasion". There is just as much crap coming in from Syria as Iraq but no one ever mentions "invading" them. Anything that is being done now by the US in Iran is likely a black operation run by the CIA and you'll never hear about until 20 yrs
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      and they were talking about the 20K troop increase as a way to get ready to go into Iran

      Can't control things in Iraq and Afganistan so start a new war? Somebody shut Kissenger up or stop people listening to that corrupt old idiot - this didn't work last time either.

      I hope the new winds of change don't just turn into a draft.

  • by paj1234 (234750) on Saturday January 13 2007, @06:09PM (#17596500)
    Now is a good time to read and print...

    The good news about nuclear destruction
    http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=516 48 [wnd.com]

    What to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent!
    http://www.ki4u.com/guide.htm [ki4u.com]
  • by timeOday (582209) on Saturday January 13 2007, @06:12PM (#17596540)
    A nuke or two going off in the US would be terrible. But let's be glad we don't face annihilation today like we did during the cold war. Think about it, at the time there was a real risk of humanity being set back a thousand years, or according to some theories even disappearing. Terrorism is nothing next to that. They have nothing like the numbers of weapons or delivery systems to do what we or the Russians could do. India and Pakistan doesn't have them, and N. Korea doesn't have them. People just aren't comfortable without a certain amount of upset, and they enlarge or shrink whatever troubles they face to fill that void.
    • by niktemadur (793971) on Sunday January 14 2007, @05:00AM (#17601062)
      But let's be glad we don't face annihilation today like we did during the cold war. Think about it, at the time there was a real risk of humanity being set back a thousand years, or according to some theories even disappearing.

      Two words for you, sir: Vassily Arkhipov.

      This man, a commissioned officer in the soviet navy, was aboard a soviet submarine making it's way to the naval blockade imposed upon Cuba by the United States in October of 1963. Unknown to the Kennedy government, the Kremlin had authorized soviet submarines to fire nuclear weapons at will, as long as the three main officers concurred unanimously.

      For a period of aproximately 24 hours, this particular soviet submarine was subjected to a barrage of depth charges. The level of tension was beyond the breaking point, they were running out of oxygen and the temperature was running at about 125 degrees farenheit, so the captain basically said "fuck it, we're at war, we have to launch". The other officer concurred, but Vassily Arkhipov, under incredible pressure, put his foot down and said NO. We can only imagine the amount of pressure Mr Arkhipov was subjected to (a Hollywood representation would be the film 'Crimson Tide'), but he held his ground, and when the submarine finally emerged to the surface, the world was not at war, so that they would have precipitated nuclear war if they had launched.

      Now consider this: the Secretary of Defense under Kennedy, Robert MacNamara, has been quoted as saying that he went to bed that night not knowing if there would be a world to wake up to next morning (I doubt he got much sleep), even as he did not know that the Kremlin had delegated authority to their submarine officers to launch nuclear weapons, MacNamara found out a quarter of a century later, in the late eighties.

      How's that for a close call nobody knew about?

      With that said, I have a question: why aren't there monuments to Vassily Arkhipov being erected all over the place?
      I hope you'll be happy to know that Mr Arkhipov died peacefully of old age in the late nineties. Bless you, Mr Arkhipov, I truly hope that your wife made the best borscht with oxtail in the world and that you slowly enjoyed every time you dipped it with your freshly baked bread, for years and years and years. Yum.
  • From the summary...

    It is not revealed in which direction the hands of the clock will be moved...

    From TFA...

    The minute hand of the Doomsday Clock will be moved closer to midnight on January 17 (emphasis added).

  • by dnc253 (1039198) on Saturday January 13 2007, @08:02PM (#17597690)
    Where did they get their doomsday clock? On my former planet we got one of those, but we could never figure out how to program it, so it just blinked 12:00.

    ...And our world tragically came to an quick end......

  • by arcade (16638) on Saturday January 13 2007, @08:15PM (#17597798) Homepage
    I only remember the 80s.

    I remember, vividly, how my parents thought me that it was a cold war between the US and the Soviet Union.

    I remember the retorics. I remember the fear. I remember how I was told that we could be destroyed by nuclear weapons.

    I remember MAD.

    I was born in 1979.

    People born just 5 or 6 years later than me - do not remember this. They have never experienced the cold war. They can't remember it. They can't even understand the doomsday clock, the fear, the MAD uncertainty.

    I was 10 years old. I helped chop the Berlin wall down. Physically.

    People, just 5 years younger than me - don't understand what it was all about. They don't remember. .. and I'm still young.

    Now, this article is about the doomsday clock moving forward. From 17 minutes to midnight. Heh .. I don't have words for the stupidity. The world is relatively safe. The major disaster and major fear we have is from islamic terrorists sending a couple of planes into a building or two. A BUILDING OR TWO! THATS IT! Eighteen years ago we were afraid that New York as a whole would be anhilated in a few minutes. ALL of it. Not just a building or two on manhattan.

    And these guys want to move the hands forward on a clock of global doom. Right.

    It was right in the 80s. It's not right anymore. Move it backwards three or four hours, and it might be right. This way - it's just ridiculous.

  • yawn (Score:4, Funny)

    by Al Al Cool J (234559) on Saturday January 13 2007, @08:29PM (#17597906)
    Meanwhile, the Who-Still-Gives-A-Flying-Fig-About-The-Doomsday-Cl ock Clock remains stuck on flashing 12:00
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        You're forgetting about the people that either: believe their god will save them from destruction; or just plain don't care if they die. Terrorist and insane heads of states (Ahmadinejad?), for example.